USDA’s November Crop Production Report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates have reputations for being relatively tame, but history has shown that soybeans tend to have outsize reactions.
The November data is due for release on Tuesday at 11:00 A.M. CT. In recent years, beans have undoubtedly seen the largest swings in price. The lone exception was in 2022, though wheat futures were then navigating the early stages of the war in Ukraine, which saw price action turn unusually volatile. Price direction has been firmly mixed among all major crop futures. Soybeans have seen four moves higher in the last six years and two to the downside, with corn and wheat higher three times and lower three times each.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg painted a picture that would likely see wheat and corn markets continuing the trend of muted market reactions if realized, though soybeans could see further risk to the downside if expectations for higher ending stocks come to pass.
Nov. WASDE Ending Stocks (Mil. Bu) | |||
| Crop | Corn | Soy | Wheat |
| Analyst Avg. | 1,846.2 | 332.2 | 744.1 |
| USDA Month-Ago | 1,849 | 315 | 740 |
| USDA Year-Ago | 2,154 | 315 | 740 |
Analysts expect USDA to cut its national estimate for the average corn yield by 0.6 bushel to 180.6 bu. per acre, which would see production drop by 54.2 million bushels to 15.979 billion. Despite the minor cut from October, that would leave yields above expectations that were set earlier in the September forecast window that saw the agency peg the U.S. yield at 178.8 bushels.
The average analyst sees ending stocks nearly unchanged even after factoring in the mild cut to production, with stocks expected to fall 2.8 million to 1.846 billion bushels. While analysts do not provide a line-by-line breakdown of their balance sheets to Bloomberg, based off recent export data, it is possible a reduction in export forecasts is being factored in. Total commitments for corn at this time are down 6.1% from the five-year average which could spur the agency to cut their expectations for 3.3 billion bushels in exports, especially if the size of the crop is expected to be reduced as well.
Soybeans are the commodity facing the widest range of ending stocks expectations, and thus the potential for more volatility. Estimates range from 280 million to 404 million, a spread of 124 million bushels, or 39.4% of the prior USDA estimate. That range is only 14.7% for corn stocks, and 7.3% in wheat. The average analyst guess has soybean ending stocks pegged at 332.2 million bushels, up from 315 million bushels last month.
Much of that variation can explained by differing expectations for the average yield, with expectations stretching from 53 to 55 bushels bu. per acre. That difference may seem minor, but that translates into a 225 million range in soybean production estimates. While analysts may differ on where yield will end up, on average they see USDA raising yields by 0.4 bushels to 53.5 bushels.
Wheat is expected to see a mostly quiet report given the time of year. Final yields for the prior growing season were set in September’s Small Grains summary, and the yield forecasting window for the crop to be harvested in 2027 is still yet to come. That means any changes to wheat are likely to come on the demand side.
Analysts see wheat stocks rising 4.1 million bushels to 744.1 million from last month. Despite an uptick in export activity in recent weeks, with wheat export sales hitting a marketing year high the week ending October 22, total commitments remain poor. Similar to corn, the poorly performing export data may be enough to drive the agency to lower its forecast.