NOPA’s June crush slows more than anticipated

Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association say they crushed just 152.41 million bu. of soybeans during June, falling well short of expectations for a crush of 159.48 million bushels. In fact, the tally came in under the lowest trade guess (of 155.50 million bu.) as tight supplies, high prices and seasonal maintenance clipped processing. The June NOPA crush was the lowest in eight months and down 6.8% from the May crush of 163.52 million bu. and 8.9% under last year’s 167.26 million bu. crush. While the June number was well under expectations and recent months, it still marked the third largest June crush on record — behind 2018 and 2020.

Earlier this week, USDA lowered its 2020-21 crush forecast by 5 million bu. to 2.170 million bu. in a nod to the slowdown in crushing in recent months after record-setting processing the first five months of the crop year, and we suspect more cuts may lie ahead. Current low crush margins make it unlikely crush the remaining two months of the crop year will total the 364 million bu. needed to reach USDA’s forecast. We expect the 2020-21 crush to come in closer to 2.155 million bushels.

NOPA reported soyoil stocks ended June at 1.537 billion lbs., the tightest month-end stocks since October and an 8.0% retreat from May. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected June 30 stocks of soyoil to come in around 1.623 billion pounds.