Last week on January 16th, the National Weather Service released updated 90-day seasonal outlooks covering February through April. The outlook for temperatures shows most of the southern U.S. is likely to trend warmer than average this winter which is not unexpected with the La Nina year. Colder than average temperatures are expected to prevail only in the far northern Plains and to a lesser extent in the northern reaches of Minnesota. The temperature forecast did not note any major shifts from the previous month.
The outlook for precipitation shows the highest likelihood for higher than average precipitation is focused in the eastern corn belt and Northwestern interior. The central and Northern plains show mostly equal chances of deviations from typical rainfall. If realized, the rainfall should provide welcome replenishment to soil moisture levels and help in winter wheat development. Lower rainfall totals are expected to continue in the Florida panhandle and across most of the Southwest, intensifying most from Arizona to Southern Texas.
The seasonal drought outlook showed drought is likely to persist and develop further for most of the southern U.S., with portions of northern Arkansas and Tennessee being the exceptions. Increased chances for precipitation look to reduce drought-like conditions in the eastern corn belt where areas are currently impacted. The Mountain west also continues to suffer from a lack of snowpack in the mountains, which does not bode well for ample water supplies in the coming growing season.
