Net farm income is forecast to decline 2.6% from 2025, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). In its September update. USDA puts net farm income at $158.4 billion for calendar year 2026, a decrease of $4.3 billion.
After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease $9.1 billion – down 5.5% relative to 2025. Despite this expected decline, USDA notes, 2026 net farm income would remain above its 20-year average in inflation-adjusted (2026) dollars.
Net cash farm income is forecast at $176.4 billion for 2026. That is an increase of $0.7 billion, 0.4%, relative to 2025. But after adjusting for inflation, 2026 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease 2.5% -- $4.6 billion -- from 2025. “Yet stay above its 2006–25 average,” USDA observes.
Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming, as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.
The average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to increase 7.1% from 2025 to $121,700 per farm in 2026 in nominal terms. Farm businesses are farms with an annual gross cash farm income (GCFI) — annual income before expenses — of at least $350,000 or operations with less than $350,000 in annual GCFI but that report farming as the operator’s primary occupation.
Among USDA’s, nine Farm Resource Regions, six are expected to see average net cash farm income rise in 2026 relative to 2025 in nominal dollars. Farm businesses located in the Northern Great Plains region are projected to see the largest increase in average net cash income. When grouped by commodity specialization, farm businesses specializing in crops are forecast to see higher average net cash farm income in 2026, except specialty crop farm businesses. All animal/animal product commodity specializations are forecast to see lower average net farm income.
On the farm sector balance sheet, equity is expected to remain relatively stable. In nominal terms, equity is forecast to increase by $102.9 billion, 2.7%, from 2025 to $3.86 trillion but decline slightly, 0.3%, when adjusted for inflation. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase by $129.3 billion, 3.0%, nominally to $4.47 trillion following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets. But when adjusted for inflation, total assets are expected to remain nearly unchanged. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase by $26.4 billion, 4.6%, in nominal terms to $605.1 billion in 2026. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to increase slightly from 13.34% to 13.54 percent in 2026. Working capital is forecast to increase 3.5% nominally after declining 15.0% in 2025.
