Drought, Biodiesel Impacting Soyoil Prices, Exports

As a result of tighter global exportable supplies and higher industrial consumption, soybean oil as a percentage of global vegetable oil consumption is forecast to fall below 30% in 2022-23 for the first time in nearly a decade,” said the monthly USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade circular. Palm, rape and sunflower oil will fill the gap in vegetable oil supplies. Some 44% of U.S. soybean oil will go to biofuels during the current marketing year, USDA forecasts. Two years ago, the biofuel share of soyoil consumption was 37%.

USDA’s comments: “For soybean oil, imports are forecast to be the lowest in five years driven by lower Argentina exportable supplies and strong U.S. renewable diesel production, which has rendered U.S. soybean oil export prices uncompetitive on the global market. Soybean oil trade is further dampened by the announcement that the Brazil biodiesel blend mandate has been raised to 12%, putting further pressure on exportable supplies.”