Corn and soybean acres expected to climb, but how much is unclear

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USDA’s Prospective plantings numbers for corn and soybeans were met with skepticism, but the market had to wait until the department’s June 30 Acreage Report for a survey-based update on actual intentions. Corn plantings are expected to rise notably from March intentions, but there’s more uncertainty regarding how much (if any) rise in planted acreage is likely for soybeans. June 1 stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat are all expected to tighten dramatically compared with year-ago levels. But this is a report traders have struggled to peg, especially corn stocks.

The following expectations are generated by survey work by Reuters.

Expectations for
Prospective Plantings Report

Corn – million acres

Average est.

93.787

Range

92.000-95.840

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

93.600

USDA March forecast

91.144

USDA final 2020

90.819

 

Soybeans – million acres

Average est.

88.955

Range

87.900-90.400

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

88.700

USDA March forecast

87.600

USDA final 2020

83.084

 

All wheat – million acres

Average est.

45.940

Range

44.200-46.940

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

46.000

USDA March forecast

46.358

USDA final 2020

44.349

 

Winter wheat – million acres

Average est.

33.028

Range

32.000-33.800

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

33.100

USDA March forecast

33.078

USDA final 2020

30.415

 

Other spring wheat – million acres

Average est.

11.408

Range

10.500-12.230

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

11.300

USDA March forecast

11.740

USDA final 2020

12.250

 

Durum wheat – million acres

Average est.

1.513

Range

1.300-1.600

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

1.600

USDA March forecast

1.540

USDA final 2020

1.684

 

Cotton – million acres

Average est.

11.856

Range

11.500-12.400

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

11.900

USDA March forecast

12.036

USDA final 2020

12.093

 

 

 

 

Expectations for
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

Corn – billion bu.

Average est. for June 1, 2021

4.144

Range

3.917-4.546

USDA March 1, 2021

5.003

USDA June 1, 2020

7.701

 

Soybeans – billion bu.

Average est. for June 1, 2021

0.787

Range

0.696-0.952

USDA March 1, 2021

1.381

USDA June 1, 2020

1.564

 

Wheat – billion bu.

Average est. for June 1, 2021

0.859

Range

0.777-0.960

USDA March 1, 2021

1.028

USDA June 1, 2020

1.314

 

 

 

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