Conab once again lowers its Brazilian corn crop forecast

Brazilian government statistics agency Conab now estimates Brazil’s total corn crop at 85.75 MMT, a 901,000-MT decline from its August production estimate and a 16.4% retreat from 2019-20. The decline was driven by yet another cut to the safrinha corn crop. Conab expects Brazil to export just 22.0 MMT of corn in 2021, a 1.5-MMT retreat from its forecast last month. It maintained its corn import forecast of 2.3 MMT.

Brazil’s soybean crop will likely total 135.91 MMT, Conab forecasts. That represented a modest, 63,000-MT decline from its forecast last month. The stats agency expects Brazil to export 83.61 MMT of soybeans in 2021, a 190,000-MT increase from its August forecast.

Also of note, the oilseed crushers association Abiove now estimates the country's 2021 soybean crop at 137.9 MMT, up 400,000 MT from the group’s August outlook. But its soybean export forecast moved in the opposite direction, with Above now forecasting Brazil will export 86 MMT of soybeans in 2021, a 700,000-MT retreat from its August estimate. The crush organization expects Brazil to import 900,000 MT of soybeans, more than double its previous 400,000-MT projection. Despite a reduction in the country’s biodiesel blending mandate, Abiove expects Brazil to crush 46.5 MMT of soybeans this year.

Conab also lowered its Brazilian wheat crop estimate from 8.59 MMT to 8.16 MMT, but that would still be a 30.8% year-over-year surge in production.

Brazil’s cotton output is now estimated at 2.36 MMT, a slight increase from Conab’s forecast last month but a 21.5% retreat from last year’s 3.00 MMT crop.

USDA will update its Brazilian crop and export forecasts tomorrow. Last month, it estimated Brazil’s corn crop at 87.00 MMT, its soybean crop at 137.00 MMT and its wheat crop at 7.70 MMT.