Placements will once again be the key metric to watch on Friday when USDA releases its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CT. This month’s report is also a quarterly, meaning a breakdown of heifers and steers will be provided in addition to the usual data, offering further clues as to whether producers have begun the process of rebuilding a herd that has shrunk to its smallest in seven decades.
Placements are center stage as the fall sale of calves is under way, and cow-calf producers are looking to move animals to the next stage of production. Livestock auction data shows that sales of feeder cattle from the start of September through October 21 last year were 950,000 head, compared to 828,000 head over that same time this year.
A light fall calf run
The decline has mostly been driven by lighter receipts in the southern Plains states, with states in the northern Plains relatively flat. While the fall run is not over, the lighter volumes so far could see placements looking lighter.
USDA’s re-opening of the border to imports of cattle from Mexico has not caused a significant influx of feeders yet. As of October 16, 41,000 head had crossed the border so far in 2026. That’s a fraction of the 230,000 head seen in 2025, and a far cry from the 1.24 million that crossed in 2024. The re-opening of the Columbus, N.M., port of entry on Oct. 26 and the Nogales, Ariz., port on Nov. 30 should see the pace increase slightly in the coming months.
Slaughter has continued to trail the 2025 pace by roughly 7% to 8% — little changed from the prior month. That points to a possible continuation of marketings setting near record-lows as feedlots continue to hold cattle longer to achieve heavier weights that packers are currently incentivizing.
Heifer retention
The quarterly heifer-steer breakdown provides one measurement for herd retention. Last quarter’s report showed 37.4% of cattle on feed were heifers. That was up 0.1% from the previous quarter, but down 0.7% from the previous year. Recent reports show heifers as a percent of inventory down from recent highs, but still above the lows in the 32 to 34 percent range that occurred from 2015-2017, years that saw the total number of beef cows in the U.S. expand significantly.
More record lows for placements, marketings?
A poll by Reuters found that analysts, on average, see cattle inventories as of Oct. 1 at 11.452 million head, up 0.3% from last year. Inventory is expected to remain near-steady despite placements being expected to fall 7.4% from year-ago levels at 1.871 million. Marketings are also seen falling 7% to 1.518 million head. If realized, the average analyst estimates for both placements and marketings would be record lows for the month of September.
| October Cattle on Feed, Avg. Analyst Estimates | ||
| Category | As % of Year-Ago | Million Head |
| Placements (September) | 100.3 | 11.452 |
| Marketings (September) | 92.6 | 1.871 |
| Inventory (October 1) | 93.0 | 1.518 |