Analysts expect corn and soybean production to come in below July’s projections
USDA’s first corn and soybean crop estimates will be released Aug. 12 at 11:00 a.m. CT. The data will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. Field samples from USDA won’t come into play until September. The data is also expected to remind of the thin supply cushion for both crops.
USDA will also update its wheat crop forecasts, with adjustments to its spring and durum wheat crop forecasts likely to get a fair amount of attention after last month’s shockingly low numbers. The wide range of trade guesses regarding global wheat carryover for 2021-22 speaks to production and demand uncertainty.
USDA will also issue its initial survey-based cotton crop estimate, with most expecting a higher production forecast than the July projection given relatively favorable weather.
The following expectations are generated by survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).
|
Expectations for 2021 |
||
|
Corn |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
Average est. |
15.004 |
177.6 |
|
Range |
14.828-15.210 |
175.7-180.0 |
|
USDA July proj. |
15.165 |
179.5 |
|
Soybeans |
||
|
|
Production |
Yield |
|
Average est. |
4.375 |
50.4 |
|
Range |
4.273-4.450 |
49.3-51.3 |
|
USDA July proj. |
4.405 |
50.8 |
|
Cotton |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
Average est. |
18.15 |
NA |
|
Range |
17.60-19.40 |
NA |
|
USDA July proj. |
17.80 |
814 |
|
Expectations for |
|
|
All wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
1.723 |
|
Range |
1.675-1.777 |
|
USDA July |
1.746 |
|
|
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
1.363 |
|
Range |
1.330-1.376 |
|
USDA July |
1.364 |
|
|
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
806 |
|
Range |
795-816 |
|
USDA July |
805 |
|
|
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
363 |
|
Range |
357-372 |
|
USDA July |
362 |
|
|
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
194 |
|
Range |
167-220 |
|
USDA July |
198 |
|
|
|
|
Other spring wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
325 |
|
Range |
300-365 |
|
USDA July |
345 |
|
|
|
|
Durum wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
35 |
|
Range |
30-35 |
|
USDA July |
37 |
|
|
|
|
Expectations for |
||
|
Corn – billion bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
1.096 |
1.297 |
|
Range |
1.042-1.172 |
1.065-1.477 |
|
USDA July |
1.082 |
1.432 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
148 |
159 |
|
Range |
130-167 |
115-236 |
|
USDA July |
135 |
155 |
|
|
||
|
Wheat – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
NA |
644 |
|
Range |
NA |
590-741 |
|
USDA July |
844* |
665 |
|
*Set by June 1 stocks at 844 million bu. |
||
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
NA |
3.50 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
3.00-4.66 |
|
USDA July |
3.15 |
3.30 |
|
Expectations for |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
278.74 |
288.23 |
|
Range |
275.50-287.00 |
286.00-292.00 |
|
USDA July |
279.86 |
291.18 |
|
|
||
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
91.37 |
94.65 |
|
Range |
88.84-93.00 |
92.95-96.70 |
|
USDA July |
91.49 |
94.49 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
290.54 |
288.15 |
|
Range |
288.50-296.00 |
280.23-293.70 |
|
USDA July |
290.18 |
291.68 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
88.14 |
|
Range |
NA |
87.17-90.51 |
|
USDA July |
91.57 |
87.74 |
