GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: 3 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat futures firmed amid corrective buying overnight. Corn and soybeans traded on both side of unchanged, favoring the downside. Traders failed to respond to strong weekly export sales reported near the end of overnight trade, signaling focus remains on weather. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude oil futures are under modest pressure.
Weather remains near ideal for crop development in many of the major U.S. production areas. World Weather Inc. says, “U.S. weather will include alternating periods of rain and sunshine along with seasonable temperatures with some cooler biased conditions in the north-central states in this first week of the outlook. The second week U.S. weather may include a little less intensity and frequency in rainfall along with slightly warmer-biased temperatures.”
Trade remains a concern as President Donald Trump warned Brazil he will impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports to the U.S. starting Aug. 1 unless President Lula da Silva halts what Trump called a “witch hunt” trial against former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula said the new tariffs would be met with reciprocal measures. Trump also announced a 50% duty on copper imports will begin Aug. 1.
Brazil raised its corn production forecast by 3.72 MMT from last month to a record 131.97 MMT, with the safrinha crop now estimated at 104.5 MMT. Conab trimmed the Brazilian soybean production estimate by 110,000 MT to a still-record 169.49 MMT. The 2024-25 export forecast for corn increased 2 MMT to 36 MMT. Soybean exports were trimmed 20,000 MT to 106.22 MMT.
USDA reported daily corn sales of 110,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2025-26.
Export sales for the week ended July 3:
Corn: Net sales of 1.262 MMT for 2024-25 were the largest since early May and up 70% from the four-week average. Net sales of 888,600 MT were reported for 2025-26. Mexico was the lead buyer for both marketing years at 469,900 MT and 423,900 MT, respectively. Sales topped expectations of 375,000 to 900,000 MT for 2024-25 and 150,000 to 700,000 MT for 2025-26.
Soybeans: Net sales of 503,000 MT for 2024-25, up 9% from the previous week and 43% from the four-week average. Net sales of 248,400 MT for 2025-26. Traders expected 300,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25; 50,000 to 400,000 MT for 2025-26.
Wheat: Net sales of 567,800 MT for 2025-26, within the expected range of 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
CORN: December corn futures traded within Wednesday’s range during the overnight session. Initial support at yesterday’s contract low of $4.11 3/4 is backed by the psychological $4.00 mark – a level which seems likely to be tested near-term. Resistance is heavily layered in the $4.15 to $4.25 range.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures have broken down technically this week, opening the door to a likely near-term test of the psychological $10.00 mark. The contract got within 2 1/4 cents of that level overnight. Resistance is heavily layered in the $10.07 to $10.25 range.
WHEAT: December SRW futures posted an outside day up on the daily chart overnight. Near-term resistance extends from the overnight high of $5.54 to the top of Monday’s gap at $5.56 1/4. Near-term support extends down to $5.34 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher after USDA again closed the border to Mexican cattle imports. Big discounts to the cash market and building cash cattle expectations should also be price-supportive for cattle futures. But with futures trading near their recent highs, a stronger open could be met with some intra-day profit-taking. Wholesale beef prices fell $6.59 to $386.45 for Choice and $5.19 to $373.27 for Select on Wednesday, though movement accelerated to 143 loads, suggesting strong underlying retailer demand. USDA reported weekly beef sales of 11,600 MT for 2025, up 1% from the previous week but down 12% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone as the recent choppy trade is likely to continue. The CME lean hog index dropped another 29 cents to $107.04 as of July 8, though that’s the smallest daily decline since June 27. Pork cutout firmed a nickel to $112.06 on Thursday, despite weakness in four of the six cuts. USDA reported net pork sales of 24,300 MT for 2025, down 11% from the previous week and 17% from the four-week average. China was the leading buyer at 8,800 MT.