After the Bell | March 16, 2022
Corn: May corn futures fell 28 cents to $7.30, the contract’s lowest closing price since $7.25 on March 2. December futures lost 21 1/2 cents to $6.29 3/4. Corn fell as winter wheat tumbled the 85-cent daily limit on reports of progress in Russia/Ukraine peace talks. U.S. ethanol production the week ended March 11 averaged 1.028 million barrels per day (bpd), down 2,000 bpd from the previous week but up 5.9% from the same week in 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration. Tomorrow’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show net U.S. corn sales of 700,000 to 1.4 million MT for 2021-22 and zero to 200,000 MT for 2022-23.
Soybeans: May soybean futures fell 9 1/2 cents to $16.49 1/4, a two-week low, while May soyoil fell 13 points to 73.55 cents per pound. May soymeal slid $6 to $478.00 per ton. The soy complex was relatively well supported despite sharp losses in wheat. NOPA yesterday reported U.S. soybean crushing at 165.1 million bu. in February, down 9.4% from January but up 6.4% from February 2021. Net weekly U.S. soybean sales for 2021-22 are expected to range from 900,000 MT to 1.8 MMT.
Wheat: May SRW wheat fell the 85-cent daily limit to $10.69 1/4, the contract’s lowest closing price since $10.59 on March. 2. March HRW wheat fell the 85-cent limit to $10.72 1/2. May spring wheat fell 60 cents to $10.50 1/4, the lowest settlement since Feb. 28. Wheat futures tumbled sharply as hopes for a ceasefire fueled optimism that shipment from two of the world’s largest grain exporters may eventually be fully restored. Ukraine and Russia reportedly have made “significant” progress on a tentative 15-point neutrality plan to end the war. In the U.S., forecasts have turned wetter for some HRW ground of the U.S. Plains, which has been gripped by drought for months.
Cotton: May cotton futures rose 120 points to 119.80 cents per pound. Cotton futures gained behind weakness in the U.S. dollar and strength in U.S. equities, which suggested optimism over the U.S. economic outlook and hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Reports that Shanghai will not shut down despite Covid concerns also supported cotton. Traders await tomorrow’s USDA weekly export sales report for a gauge on demand from China and other top foreign buyers. Last week, USDA report net U.S. cotton net sales totaling 354,200 running bales (RB) for 2021-2022, up 51% from the prior four-week average.
Cattle: June live cattle fell $1.275 to $135.525, after earlier rising to a two-week high at $137.60. Cattle futures posted a modest downside correction following recent strong price gains that had stirred beliefs the market had established a near-term bottom. Feeder cattle were supported by sharp declines in corn futures. Packers have yet to establish this week’s cash trade, although feedlots were reportedly asking $3 to $4 more and general expectations are that cash cattle trade will rise $1 to $2 from last week’s average of $138.30. Choice beef cutout values rose 18 cents to $258.08, the highest daily average in nearly three weeks. Movement totaled 123 loads.
Hogs: June lean hogs rose 40 cents to $120.475. Recent slippage in the CME lean hog index seemed to weigh on nearby April futures. The index fell 36 cents today and is expected to drop another 8 cents tomorrow, to $100.41, but is still near a six-month high. Pork cutouts continued recent strength, rising 54 cents to $105.02 on movement of 294 loads. April futures trading at a modest premium to the cash equivalent price may partially account for the weakness, although seasonal patterns suggest the market will have started its spring surge by the time the April contract expires on April 14.
