After the Bell | June 29, 2021
Corn: December corn futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.48 1/2 a bushel after relatively subdued, two-sided trade. Traders evened positions ahead of Wednesday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks Report, both of which have the potential to swiftly move the market in either direction. Traders on average expect corn plantings to increase nearly 3%, to 93.8 million acres, from USDA’s March intentions forecast, based on a Reuters survey. June 1 corn stocks are expected to come in around 4.114 billion bu., down nearly 18% from year-ago. Weather is expected to remain status-quo for the next week to 10 days, meaning rains will likely be ample over southern and eastern areas, while scattered, light showers are expected in northwestern areas of the Corn Belt. Some model data brings rain to the drier areas July 7-9, but World Weather Inc. believes the rain is overdone.
Soybeans: July soybeans rose 2 3/4 cents to $13.59 3/4 a bushel and November soybeans closed steady at $13.12 1/2. December soybean meal fell $5.50 to $353.80 per ton, while December soyoil rose 126 points to 61.29 cents. There is just enough uncertainty in the Corn Belt weather patterns expected in July to keep the sellers timid so far this week. World Weather Inc. today projected restricted rains in the northern Plains, upper Midwest and parts of the northwestern Corn Belt in the coming days. USDA’s Acreage report tomorrow is expected to show U.S. soybean plantings rose about 1.4 million acres from a March forecast, to nearly 89 million acres. June 1 soybean stocks are expected to be down 43% from year-ago. USDA’s “good” to “excellent” ratings for soybeans held at 60% over the past week.
Wheat: July spring wheat futures soared to $8.62 3/4, the highest levels in over eight years, before ending 22 1/2 cents lower. September SRW futures fell 5 1/4 cents to $6.46 1/4 and September HRW futures rose 1/4 cent to $6.27. Ongoing deterioration in spring wheat conditions of the Northern Plains continues to propel buying interest. USDA yesterday reported 20% of the spring wheat crop was in “good” to “excellent” condition, down from 27% a week ago and 69% a year ago. USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 33% harvested as of Sunday, up from 17% a week earlier but behind the five-year average of 40%. Tomorrow’s USDA acreage report is expected to show 2021 planting of all U.S. wheat at 45.94 million acres, based on a survey of analysts, down slightly from March but up nearly 1.6 million acres from last year’s low tally.
Cotton: October cotton futures fell 13 points to 88.14 cents per pound, while December futures rose 15 points to 87.58 cents. Cotton traders await tomorrow’s USDA’s acreage update. U.S. cotton plantings for 2021 will total 11.856 million acres, based on the average estimate in a Reuters survey of analysts. The average estimate would be down from USDA’s March projection for plantings of 12 million acres. Weekend rainfall across cotton areas of West Texas muted buying interest early this week, but those rains were highly varied, with localized flooding occurring in some areas and little rain falling in others. USDA’s weekly crop progress report yesterday showed 52% of the cotton crop was in good to excellent condition, unchanged from a week ago.
Hogs: July lean hog futures closed up $2.025 at $106.975 per hundredweight, while the August contract finished up 85 cents at $103.625. The past three sessions have seen a corrective bounce after the $20 downdraft earlier in June. Larger U.S. pork supplies later this summer may keep pressure on futures. USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report last week suggested market-ready supplies will be larger than expected through summer. On the positive side, U.S. pork exports remain solid and that should limit price downside. Also, the discount that the nearby futures are trading to cash hog prices should support futures. The noon pork report showed carcass cutout value up $3.84, led by gains in hams and bellies. Movement was decent at 181.58 loads. Cash prices on a national direct basis were down 11 cents Tuesday, at a five-day rolling average price of $115.46.
Cattle: August live cattle rose 32.5 cents to $121.925 per hundredweight, while October rose 22.5 cents to $127.75. August feeder cattle rose $1.05 to $157.40. Cash cattle markets generated only light trade so far this week, with steady to firmer prices in the northern market and steady to slightly weaker trade in the Southern Plains. The initial trade would suggest prices will be about steady, though movement was light. Wholesale beef prices continued to fall, with Choice boxes down another $4.62 and Select $2.50 lower, though movement picked up with 95 loads changing hands. That could be an early sign the drop below $300 in Choice beef and $275 in Select is attracting increased retailer demand.