After the Bell | June 22, 2021
Corn: July corn futures settled 1/2 cent higher at $6.59 3/4 a bushel, while December fell 18 cents to $5.39. A bigger-than-expected decline in USDA weekly crop condition ratings was brushed aside as trade focused on forecasts calling for improved weather for a good portion of the Corn Belt. Today’s midday GFS weather model suggested greater rainfall for the Corn Belt during the during the next 10 days, though it is likely too wet for northwestern and central areas of the region, according to World Weather Inc. USDA’s “good” to “excellent” ratings for corn dropped three points to 65% as of Sunday. Dry conditions will require timely rains during the critical pollination pollination phase ahead. If rains develop as forecast over the next 10 days, much of the Corn Belt will have sufficient soil moisture into pollination, aside from dry northern and western areas.
Soybeans: July soybeans lost 20 1/2 cents to $13.94 1/2 per bushel, while July meal tumbled $9.80 to $363.30 a ton. July soyoil gained 34 points to 60.67 cents a pound. Despite slippage in the soybean crop’s ratings, soybean and soymeal markets moved generally lower Tuesday. The losses likely marked selling motivated by improved conditions from milder, wetter weather late last week and in the days ahead. Early palm oil strength and news of a sizeable Egyptian vegoil tender appeared to support soyoil futures. USDA rated soybean around 60% good-to-excellent as of Sunday. Mid-to-late summer weather is most critical to the size of the U.S. harvest, so futures could easily remain vulnerable to weather-driven price swings for some time.
Wheat: July SRW wheat futures closed down 10 1/2 cents at $6.51 and July HRW futures finished down 3 1/4 cents at $5.96 1/2. September spring wheat rose 15 1/4 cents to $7.82 3/4. Spring wheat surged following Monday afternoon’s surprisingly low spring wheat condition ratings, although HRS futures later proved vulnerable to selling spilling over from the other grain markets. The spring wheat crop’s condition fell to just 27% “good” to “excellent,” down from 37% a week ago and far exceeding the 2-percentage point drop expected by analysts. USDA’s weekly crop progress report out Monday afternoon showed the U.S. winter wheat harvest 17% completed as of Sunday, up from 4% the previous week but lower than the five-year average of 26%.
Cotton: July cotton futures closed up 13 points at 84.22 cents and December cotton closed up 45 points at 85.64 cents. The cotton market bulls continue to show resilience in the face of grain futures markets that have seen strong selling pressure recently. Gains in the cotton market today were limited by improved weather conditions in U.S. cotton country. World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in the Delta and southeastern states through much of the next 10 days to two weeks. “A few pockets of dryness will be possible, but the majority of crop areas in these areas will have sufficient moisture to support most crop needs.” Tropical depression Claudette failed to produce much damage to cotton.
Hogs: Nearby July futures climbed $0.475 to $107.525, while most-active August gained $0.025 to $103.70. Surveys head of the June 24 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report reportedly indicate analysts expect short-term hog supplies will average about 4% under comparable 2020 levels. Climbing fed cattle futures likely encouraged hog bulls as well, but the midday report of a $1.75 drop in pork cutout, to $117.24, weighed on futures late. The monthly USDA Cold Storage report published after the close stated U.S. pork stocks at 461.1 million pounds as of May 31, which came up 6.8 million below the comparable year-ago figure. Pork belly stocks edged up 1.0 million pounds in May to 36.2 million at the end of the month.
Cattle: August live cattle rose $2.15 to $123.175 per hundredweight, while August feeder cattle rose $3.25 to $158.35, the highest close in over two months. Cattle futures climbed amid technical recovery from sharp declines in recent sessions and signs of continued strength in the cash market. A still-developing cash market early this week remained in trade focus. Live steers in five top U.S. cattle markets averaged $126.26 early this week, a USDA report showed. By comparison, live steers in five top U.S. cattle markets averaged $122.84 last week. Boxed-beef prices continued to erode, with choice cutout values averaging $317.36 early today, the lowest since May 14. USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report today showed estimated U.S. beef stockpiles as of May 31 at 414 million pounds, down 7.8% from 448.9 million at the end of April and down 0.8% from 417.4 million on the same date a year earlier.
