Good morning!
Grain futures firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 3 1/4 cents. May soybeans were 3 1/2 cents up. May soybean meal was down $1.00 and May bean oil was 92 points higher. May SRW wheat was up 8 3/4 cents and May HRW wheat was 7 1/4 cents higher. The grain markets overnight saw corrective rebounds following Wednesday’s selling pressure that did some near-term chart damage to corn and winter wheat markets. On tap for grain traders today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil sharply higher, at a three-week high and trading around $108.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.38 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump says U.S. will hit Iran “extremely hard” in next two to three weeks
--Core U.S. goals in Iran “are nearing completion,” Trump says in national address
--U.S. will hit Iran’s electric plants if there is no deal: Trump
--Iran and Israel continue to trade strikes as hopes for end to war fade
--News reports say Iran not willing to negotiate with U.S.
--Crude oil prices sharply up; global stock markets sell off
--U.S. Treasury yields rise as inflation worries resurface
--U.S. and Israeli attacks batter Iran’s civilian Infrastructure
--Gold plunges as Trump gives mixed signals on Iran war resolution
“President Trump sought Wednesday evening to explain his rationale for the war against Iran at a pivotal moment at home and abroad, but he offered few new details,” said the Associated Press. “Notably missing from Trump’s primetime address was his oft-repeated assertion that negotiations with Iran were underway. He softened his rhetoric against NATO allies and did not indicate he was preparing to send in ground troops, particularly to retrieve Iran’s enriched uranium,” said the AP.
Rain, thunderstorms and snow in the Plains and central U.S. late this week… The National Weather Service today forecast showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the upper/middle Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes today. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over the central/southern Plains, moving into the middle/lower Mississippi Valley today. Meantime, a winter storm is unfolding across the Northern Plains and will expand across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through Friday morning. Heavy snow, significant sleet and disruptive icing are expected. A second storm will move out of the central High Plains overnight Thursday, moving to the middle Mississippi Valley by Friday evening. Another winter storm will track from the Rockies into the Northern Plains Friday through Saturday.
U.S. markets closed for Good Friday holiday, but jobs report will be released… All U.S. stock, financial and commodity markets will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday Easter holiday. However, the U.S. Labor Department will release its Employment Situation Report for March. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up around 60,000 workers, which compares to a decline of 92,000 workers in the February report. The overall U.S. unemployment rate is forecast at 4.4% in March, unchanged from the February report. Pro Farmer will not issue any reports on Good Friday.
China books Argentine corn for first time in 15 years… Cofco International Ltd. said it is loading a bulk cargo of Argentine corn to China, in what will be the first such shipment in more than 15 years as the two countries expand agricultural trade, Bloomberg reports. The deal comes after China cleared Argentine corn imports in 2024, and as the South American nation has recently kicked off a bumper harvest. China also booked a rare cargo of Argentine wheat last year, the first shipment in decades. The shipment of about 34,000 metric tons of corn will load at Cofco’s Timbúes port terminal in Argentina and is destined for China’s feed sector, the agricultural giant’s trading unit said in a statement Wednesday. “The cargo reflects increasing alignment between the two markets and provides an additional origin option for Chinese buyers,” Cofco said. “China has increasingly been turning to South America for crop trading, said Bloomberg.
U.S. set to roll out new tariffs on steel, aluminum imports… The Trump administration is preparing to outline a tiered system for its broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products to simplify a process that has affected American companies, Bloomberg reports. The U.S. will maintain 50% tariffs on a large number of derivative products, while many other products will be tariffed at a lower 25% rate, and some products will fall below that duty level. The administration is shifting the tariffs from content to the full value of the imported product, with certain items incurring a 50% duty and others getting a 25% tariff, according to people familiar with the matter, said Bloomberg.
Malaysian palm oil futures firmer… Malaysian palm oil futures jumped about 1.5% to above MYR 4,800 per MT Thursday, rebounding from earlier losses. Strength in Chicago soyoil and firmer crude oil prices, which improved biodiesel margins, underpinned the rally. Energy markets were supported after President Trump, in a national address, pledged continued pressure on Iran’s energy sector without a clear timeline for resolution. On the demand side, cargo surveyors estimated that March palm oil exports surged between 44% and 57% from February, providing near-term support. However, gains were capped by a stronger ringgit and softer demand from top buyer India, with imports expected to ease to around 680,000 MT in March from 847,689 MT a month earlier. In Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, an industry association noted that biodiesel feedstock demand may reach 15 million MT this year, up 2 million MT, driven by the B50 rollout scheduled for July.
Cattle futures rally on higher cash trade, bullish charts… June live cattle on Wednesday rose $1.075 to $244.35 and hit a contract high. May feeder cattle gained $1.525 to $368.00 and also hit a 5.5-month high early on. The cattle futures markets bulls are keeping their foot on the gas amid solid chart-based buying interest from the speculators. Very light cash cattle trading was reported by USDA at midday Wednesday, at $238.00. That’s well above what the agency on Monday reported for cash cattle trading last week-- averaging $235.69.
Lean hog futures pause amid bearish technicals… June lean hog futures on Wednesday rose $0.125 to $105.175. The hog futures market paused amid weak technicals and declining cash hog and lean hog index prices, which are limiting buying interest in futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down 28 cents at $90.48. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 7 cents at $90.41. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $70.36.