Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 1/4 cents to $4.40, near the daily low and closed at a four-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market got hit today from selling pressure tied to keen risk aversion in the general marketplace as the U.S. stock indexes melted down today. Lower soybean futures prices also limited buying interest in corn. Technical selling was also featured today as corn prices remain in a near-term downtrend.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.295 MMT during the week ended Oct. 29, down 1% from the previous week but up 10% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 800,000 MT to 1.8 MMT.
As the U.S. corn harvest is winding down, World Weather Inc. today said dry weather through much of the next 10 days will help late harvesting to steadily accelerate. Precipitation may return to a large part of the Midwest Nov. 17-19 and by that time most of the crop will be in the bins.
Technical analysis: December corn still sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.70. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the June low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at this week’s high of $4.52. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.38 1/2 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 14 cents to $11.88 1/4, near the daily low and hit another 2.5-month low. December soybean meal lost $1.40 to $317.20, near the daily low. December soybean oil fell 129 points to 62.24 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a six-month low today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw heavy selling pressure today tied to bearish charts and to the keen risk aversion in the general marketplace today, as the U.S. stock indexes saw a huge price downdraft to multi-week lows. Spreaders today were again featured buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 1.456 MMT during the week ended Oct. 29, down 44% from the previous week and down 11% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 950,000 MT to 2.5 MMT.
China is open to buying more U.S. farm goods, but only if the two sides implement their reciprocal tariff-cut agreement, the commerce ministry said earlier today, signaling tariff concessions remain central to Beijing’s aims.
As the U.S. soybean harvest is winding down, World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest weather will improve again during the end of this week through next week as dry weather resumes after showers linger in a few areas today. Meantime, increasing rainfall expected in Brazil’s center-west crop areas next week will induce better crop emergence and establishment conditions. Some rain may also reach into the northeast part of Brazil, although the resulting moisture will be more erratic. Argentina will see a good mix of weather to support planting in November.
Technical analysis: January soybeans see a downtrend firmly in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.10 and then at $12.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.90 1/2 and then at $11.75.
Soybean meal futures are trending firmly down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $337.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $321.90 and then at this week’s high of $326.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $315.20 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 65.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 63.71 cents and then at 64.00 cents. First support is seen at 61.00 cents and then at 60.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 3/4 cent to $5.99 1/4, nearer the daily low. December HRW rose 3 cents to $6.35 3/4, near mid-range. December spring wheat futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.20, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw modest short covering. However, keen risk aversion on the general marketplace amid the huge downdraft in the stock market limited the upside for winter wheat futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 538,000 MT during the week ended Oct. 29, down 37% from the previous week, but up 16% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 300,000 to 650,000 MT.
Ukraine’s grain transportation for exports rose by 26% month-over-month to 1.08 MMT in October, according to Ukrainian state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia. Ukrainian grain shipments have been redirected to lower-capacity Danube River ports and border crossings at seaports, which previously handled 90% of grain exports, have been effectively blocked since late July by Russian attacks.
World Weather Inc. today said drought remains in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and a part of the northwestern and west-central Great Plains would benefit from additional moisture to induce the best establishment. Most of the Midwest crops are rated favorably and rain this week in the lower eastern Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin should have brought some dryness relief that will favor wheat establishment. U.S. hard red winter wheat is expected to establish more favorably because of recent rain and the continuation of mild to warm temperatures. Meantime, greater rain in Europe next week and into the following weekend will help improve winter crop establishment, although some crops may move into dormancy this season without being as well established as usual. Russia’s southern region winter grains are not going to be as well established as usual, making them more vulnerable winterkill if winter weather becomes extreme. Some moisture next week will be welcome and should be of use to crops in the spring. Cooling will induce semi-dormancy.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at $6.15 and then at last week’s high of $6.27 1/2. First support is seen at $5.90 1/2 and then at $5.75.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $6.28. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.52 and then at last week’s high of $6.66 1/2. First support is seen at $6.28 and then at $6.20.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 60 points to 78.71 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. Gains in cotton today were impressive given the heavy selling pressure in the U.S. stock indexes and mostly lower grain futures prices. Solid gains in crude oil futures today did give the cotton bulls a boost, however.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed better U.S. cotton sales of 277,500 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were up 28 percent from the previous week and up 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (200,500 RB), Pakistan (30,700 RB) and Turkey (18,300 RB). Exports of 137,800 RB--a marketing-year low--were down 14 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (43,500 RB), Mexico (20,600 RB) and Pakistan (15,900 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in west Texas and southwestern Oklahoma delayed harvesting and induced some yellowing of the crop. The Delta crops were impacted by rain recently, slowing the harvesting and discoloring some of the remaining crop. The southeastern U.S. has seen good harvest conditions recently and that will continue, despite some showers.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, today’s bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart is a solid chart clue that a market bottom is now in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 79.14 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 76.47 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.