Corn
Price action: December corn fell 5 1/2 cents to $4.64, near the daily low after hitting a six-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw routine profit-taking pressure after recent good gains. The market was due for a decent corrective pullback. A firmer U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the corn market bears.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 315,000 MT for 2025/2026, a marketing-year low, during the week ended July 9. Net sales were down 44 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net new-crop sales totaled 311,200 MT for 2026/2027. Old-crop sales were short of analysts’ expectations, which ranged from 500,000 MT to 1.1 MMT, while new-crop sales were near the low end of the expected range of 300,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
The July 14 drought monitor showed 65.7% of the U.S. is experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, down 1.2% from the previous week, with 46.5% in D1 level drought or higher, down 0.7%. Currently 19% of corn acres and 18% of soybean acres are in D1-D4 drought.
World Weather Inc. today said despite some heat in the far western Corn Belt into early next week and net drying in much of Midwest during the next two weeks, moist soils in place and a lack of significant heat in most areas through at least late next week will allow corn pollination to occur favorably in much of the region leaving production potential quite high. Exceptions will occur in and near eastern South Dakota into next Monday, where highs will reach the middle and upper 90s with some lower 100s, with similar conditions extending into the southwestern Corn Belt Sunday and Monday. Crops in these areas will see rising levels of stress and where corn is pollinating some declines in yields are likely due to the heat, with the greatest stress in parts of eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota where soil moisture is short. Showers Sunday into July 30 are not likely to bring enough rain to prevent much of the Midwest from drying down overall, while subsoil moisture in place should continue to support the needs of most crops outside of the drier areas mentioned above where stress to crops should increase and yield potentials likely decline.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.85. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.47 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at today’s high of $4.74 1/4. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 3/4 cents to $11.95, nearer the daily low. September soybean meal rose $2.90 to $320.50, nearer the daily high and hit a six-week high. September soybean oil fell 47 points to 71.71 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw mild profit-taking today. Lower corn and wheat markets today were also negative for beans. Spreaders were featured unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 188,300 MT for 2025/2026, during the week ended July 9, which were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. New crop sales of 1,769,600 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for China. Analysts expected old-crop sales to range from 100,000 to 500,000 MT and new-crop sales to range from 900,000 MT to 1.7 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the Northern Plains and northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt this week, resulting in some concern over yield potential. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while. Some drying in the central Delta will need to be closely monitored.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.07 1/4 and then at $12.14. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.84 3/4 and then at $11.72 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $328.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $305.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $323.40 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $316.40 and then at this week’s low of $313.90.
Bean oil sees a price uptrend back in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 72.73 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.32 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW fell 2 3/4 cents to $6.74 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a two-month high early on. September HRW lost 3 1/2 cents to $7.16 1/2, near the daily low and also hit a two-month high early on. September spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $6.85 1/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw modest downside price corrections after this week’s solid gains. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also negative for wheat futures. SRW wheat futures soared in overnight trade as tension persists in the Black Sea. Ukraine and Russia launched missile and drone attacks Thursday on vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, according to Reuters, in advancing hostilities in the key grain exporting region
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled Net sales of 235,100 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 during the week ended July 9, which were down 25 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales were short of analysts expected range of 250,000 to 600,000 MT.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country good harvest weather is predicted for the next week to 10 days in wheat areas. Some drying in summer crop areas will raise a little crop stress, especially during the weekend and next week when temperatures become seasonably warm once again after a brief period of milder conditions in the next few days. In the Northern Plains, yield potentials are still coming down in spring wheat production areas from Montana into the Dakotas due to excessive heat, poor soil moisture and little to no rain. These conditions will prevail for the next 10 days and could lead to additional production losses. Meantime, western Europe weather has been warm and dry, promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields. Northeastern Europe has trended cooler and wetter periodically this season, but sufficient bouts of warmth and drier weather have occurred as well, keeping most crops in favorable shape.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $6.29 1/4. First resistance is seen at $6.90 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.65 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.58. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $6.59 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.33 1/2 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 225 points to 79.30 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw heavy profit-taking pressure from the specs. Weaker grain futures prices today and a firmer U.S. dollar index were bearish outside-market elements for the natural fiber.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report saw U.S. cotton sales of 34,400 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026--a marketing-year low--were down 48 percent from the previous week and down 64 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Bangladesh (10,600 RB), Vietnam (5,800 RB) and Pakistan. Net sales of 4,100 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Pakistan (4,200 RB), Peru (3,800 RB) and Vietnam. Exports of 214,900 RB were down 7 percent from the previous week and off 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (77,100 RB), Turkey (36,100 RB), Pakistan (21,500 RB), India (17,000 RB) and Mexico (14,000 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas still needs significant moisture, especially in the dryland areas of the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next few days and will favor some of the drier areas in the south. Other areas may be dry or mostly dry especially to the north and west of Lubbock. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are in varying conditions, with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. There is a big need for rain in the Carolinas and in a part of the central Delta, and most of the Texas crop areas will need rain soon. Rain is likely for many of these areas this week, although it may not be evenly distributed.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.00 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 78.28 cents and then at 77.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.