Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 cent to $4.55, nearer the daily high after hitting a 3.5-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical selling early in the session but some short covering and perceived bargain buying lifted prices well off their session lows. Buying interest in corn futures was limited by lower soybean and wheat futures prices to start the trading week. Also, corn charts remain near-term bearish and U.S. corn harvest is progressing rapidly, prompting better commercial hedge selling.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. export inspections data is delayed from its normal 10:00 a.m. CT release. In a late Friday afternoon announcement, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said it “found a processing error that affected September corn plant populations, ear counts, yields, and production for Kansas and Nebraska.” The agency said the error also affected the September 10-state averages for plant populations and ear counts, along with U.S. corn yield and production forecasts.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 56% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week. The corn harvest is expected to have been 59% complete as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said harvesting of corn has been and will continue advancing well overall during the next two weeks, save for some showers next Saturday that will favor the western Corn Belt and precipitation in much of the Midwest Sunday into Tuesday of next week.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.80. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.50 1/4 and then at $4.45.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 16 cents to $12.52 1/2, near mid-range and hit a two-month low. December soybean meal lost $5.90 to $340.20, nearer the daily low and hit a two-month low. December soybean oil rose 18 points to 67.01 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures saw selling pressure as Brazilian President Lula got a surprise victory over challenger Flavio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s runoff presidential election. Soybean futures fell on the news as the Brazilian real depreciated against the U.S. dollar-- making Brazilian beans more price-competitive versus U.S. beans on world trade markets. Meantime, Brazilian producers had planted 40% of the 2026-27 soybean crop as of last Thursday, up from 26% a week earlier and above the 36% registered a year ago.
Selling pressure in beans and meal today also came from commercial hedge selling as the U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop harvest at 77% completed as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather is forecast in much of the U.S. Midwest this week. Any precipitation that occurs will be brief and light. Meantime, southern Brazil benefited from recent drying, but rain developed during the weekend and was expected to continue frequently through the next 10 days. Center west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will be limited through mid-week and then should start to increase. A close watch on that rain will be warranted since it may be erratic and light initially.
Technical analysis: January soybeans see a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing January prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.62 and then at $12.75 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.39 and then at $12.25.
Soybean meal futures are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $360.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $345.10 and then at $350.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $337.20 and then at $333.00.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 70.08 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 67.52 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 65.55 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 9 cents to $6.16, nearer the daily low and hit a 3.5-month low. December HRW fell 5 1/2 cents to $6.59, nearer the daily low and hit a 3.5-month low. December spring wheat futures fell 7 1/2 cents to $6.34,nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling today as prices are in firm downtrends on the daily bar charts. Wheat futures have extended to the lowest level since July amid peace prospects potential between Russia and Ukraine. Russian wheat export prices fell last week, in line with global futures, which reacted to hopes of a Black Sea peace resolution, according to Reuters. This comes after September exports dropped 61.9% on the year to almost 2.0 MMT, due to a sharp decline in shipments via the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin, according to shipping data from industry sources. Shipping through Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta was stable and grain exports had increased by the end of September, the port authority said, despite a spike in marine insurance premiums driven by increased attacks on cargo vessels.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop at 75% planted as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, some relief to dryness occurred in the high Plains region from weekend precipitation, but more rain is needed. Oklahoma and northern Texas also need greater precipitation along with parts of south Dakota and eastern Montana to induce the best wheat establishment. In the Northern Plains, seasonable frosts and hard freezes across the crop region will occur. Precipitation is expected across most of the crop region this week, which will be beneficial in supporting winter crops and gradually improving drought conditions. However, more rain will be needed in eastern Montana and North Dakota in particular. Some snow may be possible in northern Montana again on Tuesday, though any accumulations will melt in the afternoon hours.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.43 3/4. First support is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $6.28. First resistance is seen at $6.70 and then at $6.80. First support is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.40.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 114 points to 79.06 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a technically bearish downside price breakout from a sideways trading range today. Losses in the grain futures markets also weighed on cotton.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see additional rain into Friday, along with some showers Saturday into next Monday. More quality declines are likely, while production cuts may result from some boll rot as well. An important period of drier weather is expected Nov. 3-9 and harvesting should steadily increase while some discolored cotton is bleached white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the remaining cotton harvest will be slowed by the rain. Much of the cotton has likely already been harvested.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures have seen a bearish downside breakout from a sideways trading range on the daily chart, also breaking a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 77.05 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.00 cents and then at today’s high of 80.41 cents. First support is seen at 78.50 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.