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Lower corn yields and rising Chinese soybean demand are setting a firmer floor under crop prices as producers eye spring acreage decisions.
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CoBank projects the U.S. inland barge fleet shrinking about 17% by 2035 while USDA expects grain and oilseed exports to grow 9%. Operators who ship by river should plan for wider freight swings and a softer basis.
Ending stocks come in tighter than expected in both corn and soybeans, reflecting robust demand in the latter crop amid a higher yield.
USDA trimmed corn yield more than analysts expected, on average, while soybean ending stocks were lower than anticipated amid increased exports.
Wide-ranging analyst estimates on soybean carryout mean Tuesday’s report could trigger outsize market moves compared with corn and wheat.
Funds have liquidated a massive corn position and are now pressing the short side, leaving residual long positions in soybeans vulnerable to a yield or balance sheet surprise