Market Snapshot | September 20, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are higher on mild short-covering with spillover strength stemming from the wheat complex.
• The Northern Plains and western Corn Belt will receive rain late this week through the weekend, slowing summer crop maturation and early harvest progress, according to World Weather Inc.
• Ethanol production during the week ended Sept. 15 was down 59,000 barrels per day (bpd), but up 8.8% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose 510,000 barrels to 21.681 million barrels, rebounding from the lowest level since the week ended Dec. 24, 2021, last week.
• December corn has tested the 10-day moving average of $4.79 1/2, with additional resistance at $4.82 3/4. Initial support lies at $4.70 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher, while December meal futures are more than $6.00 higher. December soyoil is around 75 points lower.

• Soybeans are pivoting around, with meal strength providing support and soyoil weakness limiting buyer interest.  
• USDA reported a daily soybean sale of 120,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
• World Weather reports rain fell on portions of southern Paraguay along with southern and a few other locations in Brazil Tuesday, while most areas were dry and saw favorable conditions for fieldwork, although some producers are likely to wait for the recent heat and better soil moisture before planting summer crops.
• China’s soybean imports from Brazil rose 45% in August from a year earlier to 9.09 MMT, according to data reported earlier today from the General Administration of Customs. Brazilian shipments accounted for nearly all of the 9.36 MMT of soybeans China imported last month.
• Malaysian palm oil futures traded lower overnight, tracking weaker rival edible oils and a drop in exports earlier this month.
• November soybeans are consolidating, with resistance at $13.20 3/4, while support lies at the 100-day moving average of $13.04 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly a penny higher, while HRW is 2 to 3 cents lower. HRS contracts are mixed.

• SRW wheat futures have slipped from their overnight highs but are firmer amid a weaker U.S. dollar.
• Russia’s ag minister says he expects the country to export 60 MMT of grain this year. Wheat will account for the bulk of that total, though no specific wheat export figure was noted. He stated the country has harvested 123 MMT of grain out of an expected 130 MMT.
• SovEcon lowered Russia’s wheat crop forecast to 91.6 MMT, down from the previous estimate of 92.1 MMT.
• Polish President Andrzej Duda pledged to protect Poland’s grain from an influx of Ukrainian grain, emphasizing the need for control over such imports. “We cannot allow that Ukrainian grain is sold on the Polish market without any control,” Duda commented in a Bloomberg Television interview.
• APK-Inform agriculture consultancy increased its forecast for Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest to 54.2 MMT from the previous outlook of 53.1 MMT due to favorable weather.
• December SRW futures tested the 10-day moving average of $5.92 1/4 overnight but retreated into this morning’s open. Support is at Tuesday’s low of $5.81.

Live cattle are mildly weaker, while feeders are mixed.

• Live cattle initially extended this week’s losses, though buyers surfaced under the market and price action is mixed.
• Cash trade has been thin so far this week, though prices have been well above last week’s cash average.
• Boxed beef prices declined on Tuesday, with Choice falling $3.20 to $302.12 and a $1.63 drop in Select to $281.78. Movement totaled 165 loads for the day.
• October live cattle gapped lower at the open, though support at $185.07 held and the contract rebounded. Initial resistance stands at Tuesday’s close of $185.275.

Lean hogs are mostly firmer at midsession.

• October lean hogs are facing mild profit-taking efforts following two days of solid gains.
• The CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $86.58 as of Sept. 18, marking the third straight daily decline, though the market has shown signs of stabilizing over the past couple of weeks.
• The pork cutout value rose 17 cents Tuesday to $101.13. Movement for the day totaled 272.3 loads.
• October lean hogs are pivoting around yesterday’s closing level, with the 200-day moving average of $84.67 serving as support, while initial resistance stands at $85.59.