Market Snapshot | September 19, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

• December corn futures have rebounded from earlier lows with crude oil strength underpinning gains.
• As of Sunday, USDA rated the corn crop as 51% “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from the previous week, while harvest progress was estimated at 9%, compared to the average of 7%. When USDA’s ratings are plugged into the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect) the crop fell 3.2 points to 332.9, which was 4.0 points (1.2%) below year-ago at this time.
• Brazilian corn exports are projected to reach 10 MMT in September versus up to 10.68 MMT forecasted last week, according to Anec.
• December corn marked a fresh near-term low at $4.67 3/4, with support of $4.67 1/4 left untested. Meanwhile, initial resistance stands at $4.77 1/4.

Soybeans are fractionally to a penny lower, while December meal futures are around $1.00 higher. December soyoil is around 20 points lower.

• November soybeans are edging lower for the third straight session, though budding strength in meal and corn is limiting losses.
• USDA rated the soybean crop as 52% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from the previous week, while harvest was estimated at 5% complete, compared to the average of 4%. On our weighted CCI, the crop declined 2.1 points to 331.3, down 7.6 points (2.3%) from last year in mid-September.
• Brazilian soy exports are forecast to reach 6.88 MMT in September versus estimates of up to 7.38 MMT last week.
• November soybean futures are being supported by the 100-day moving average at $13.04 1/4, while resistance is at the 200-day moving average of $13.29 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly steady to a penny lower, while HRW is fractionally lower. HRS contracts are 1 to 3 cents lower.

• The wheat complex is positing mild losses despite supportive outside markets.
• USDA estimated spring wheat harvest was 93% complete as of Sunday, while winter wheat plantings were estimated at 15%, compared to the average of 16%.
• A cargo vessel carrying grain left the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Chornomorsk for the first time since the grain deal expired in mid-July. “Resilient Africa” was loaded with 3,000 MT of wheat, while “Aroyat” is still moored in Chornomorsk and is being loaded with wheat for Egypt.
• December SRW futures tested support at $5.84 but rebounded from earlier lows, while resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $6.04 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are mixed at midmorning.

• October live cattle marked a fresh contract high on persisting bullish fundamentals, which also represented a new all-time high on the continuation chart.
• The average cash cattle price rose $1.76 to $184.04 last week. Traders are hopeful of higher cash prices again this week, though active trade isn’t expected until Thursday or Friday.
• Wholesale beef prices are rather stagnant with Choice down 39 cents on Monday to $305.32, while Select rose 29 cents to $283.41. Movement totaled 113 loads for the day.
• October live cattle have traded as high as $187.45, taking out last Friday’s high of $187.30, with $187.75 serving as resistance. Meanwhile, support lies at $185.95.

Lean hogs are posting moderate to strong gains at midmorning.

• October lean hogs are notching strong gains amid strength and wholesale pork prices.
• Traders are also narrowing the discount the lead contract holds to the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index has been consolidating around $86.00 since the Sept. 5 low, with today’s quote falling 12 cents to $86.81 as of Sept 15.
• The pork cutout value rose $2.67 to $100.96, with gains in all cuts except primal butts. Movement totaled 270.5 loads.
• October lean hogs have extended above resistance at $84.075 and the 200-day moving average of $84.70. Additional resistance stands at $86.00, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $83.24.