Market Snapshot | October 24, 2023

Corn is mostly a nickel lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are under pressure amid weakness in wheat and strong gains in the U.S. dollar.
• USDA reported a daily corn sale of 117,200 MT for delivery to Mexico during 2023-24.
• As of Sunday, USDA estimated corn harvest was 59% complete, up 14 percentage points from the previous week and five points ahead of the five-year average.
• Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 125 MMT but switched to a neutral to lower bias.
• World Weather Inc. reports Argentina’s greatest rainfall is over for a while, though some periodic light showers and thunderstorm activity will be possible.
• December corn futures have dropped below the 20-day moving average of $4.89 3/4, but the 40-day moving average of $4.85 1/4 is limiting losses. Meanwhile, resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $4.92 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher, while December meal futures are nearly $1.00 higher. December soyoil is about 50 points lower.

• Soybeans have rebounded from earlier lows, though weakness in soyoil futures is limiting gains.
• USDA reported soybean harvest advanced 14 points to 76%, nine points ahead of average.
• Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop estimate unchanged at 162 MMT, but now notes a neutral to lower bias going forward. Irregular rainfall across Brazil caused Cordonnier to be more cautious with his bias toward soybeans.
• Argentina announced Monday it would expand and extend and export incentive program for a month starting today. The program, which had been available to exporters of soybeans and their derivatives, will now be offered to all export sectors in a bid to boost exports.
• Center-west Brazil will see some showers in the coming week, but much of the resulting rain will not counter evaporation, leaving a need for additional rains. Interior and southern Brazil and Paraguay will receive too much rain this weekend, resulting in a new round of flooding and more delays to summer crop planting.
• November soybeans are trading mostly between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $12.90 3/4 and $12.84 1/2. Additional resistance and support are at $12.98 1/2 and $12.80 1/2, respectively.

Winter wheat contracts are mostly 8 to 10 cents lower, while HRS contracts are mostly 10 to 12 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are lower, with notable U.S. dollar strength weighing on the complex.
• USDA reported 77% of the winter wheat crop was sowed as of Sunday, one point behind average and two points less than traders expected. Winter wheat emergence was estimated at 53%, equal to the five-year average for the third week of October.
• Russia’s grain harvest in 2023 is seen at 140 MMT, down from last year’s record high, but still its second largest ever. Export potential is estimated at 60 MMT, according to TASS news agency.
• Ukraine has already shipped around 700,000 MT of grains since the opening of the humanitarian corridor in August, with most of the volume going to African and European countries, according to the country’s agriculture ministry.
• December SRW futures have dropped below the 40- and 10-day moving averages of $5.83 1/4 and $5.78, while the 20-day moving average of $5.72 1/2 serves as the next area of support. Initial resistance is serving at $5.88 1/4.  

Live cattle and feeders are posting strong gains at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures are seeing a corrective bounce following Monday’s hefty losses.
• Daily price limits in live cattle are expanded to $10.00, while feeders are expanded to $12.25 following Monday’s limit down close.
• Last week, cash cattle averaged $186.15, the fifth highest of all-time. While the wholesale market continues to show relative strength, producers could sell at lower prices following Monday’s strong selloff.
• Choice boxed beef prices fell 84 cents on Monday to $304.54, while Select gained $2.32, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $23.52. Movement totaled 105 loads for the day.
• December live cattle have extended as high as $181.425. Solid support remains at the 200-day moving average at $176.63. Initial resistance stands at $181.925.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

• Lean hog futures are mixed, with deferred contracts favoring the downside, while nearby futures are moderately higher despite weakening cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 72 cents to $79.07 as of Oct. 20, extending the seasonal downturn.
• The pork cutout value firmed 58 cents on Monday to $88.55, marking the second straight daily gain following an extended pullback.
• December lean hogs are testing resistance at Monday’s high at $67.10, while support lies $65.53.