Market Snapshot | October 23, 2023

Corn is a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing followthrough weakness amid weekend rains in Argentina and extended weakness in crude oil futures.
• AgRural reported farmers in south-central Brazil have planted 46% of their first 2024 corn crop, up from 41% a week ago but below the 51% registered a year earlier.
• Nearly widespread rain and interruptions to fieldwork occurred in Argentina during the weekend, with moisture beneficial for summer crops, according to World Weather Inc.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 437,549 MT (17.2 million bu.) for week ended Oct. 19, down 29,055 MT from the previous week, but within the pre-report range of 350,000 to 650,000 MT.
• December corn has edged below the 10-day moving average of $4.92 1/4, though additional support lies at the 20-day moving average of $4.89 1/2. Resistance stands around $5.00.

Soybeans are mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $3.50 higher. December soyoil is about 30 points lower.

• Soybeans are facing mild weakness, though increasing meal strength has pulled futures well off their lows.
• Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean planting is estimated to be 30% complete as of last Thursday, up 13 percentage points from the previous week but behind 34% at this time last year, according to AgRural. The pace was driven by top producing state, Mato Grosso, which now leads fieldwork in the country.
• Little rain and hot temps will stress crops from central Mato Grosso do Sul to much of northern Brazil today, affecting newly planted crops before showers become more frequent Tuesday through Nov. 6. Paraguay and southern Brazil will see regular during the next week two weeks that will favorably support crop development, though some flooding could begin Thursday.
• USDA reported export inspections of 2.459 MMT (90.4 million bu.) of soybeans during week ended Oct. 12, up 419,446 MT from the previous week and near the top-end of the pre-report range from 1.5 MMT to 2.5 MMT.
• Malaysian palm oil futures fell overnight, weighed by weakness in rival Dalian vegetable oil and crude oil, although weakness in the Malaysian ringgit and strong export data limited losses.
• November soybeans have extended below support at $12.96 and $12.89 3/4, though the 20-day moving average of $12.85 3/4 is limiting losses. Initial resistance stands at Friday’s close of $13.02 1/4.

Winter wheat contracts are mostly 6 to 8 cents higher, while HRS contracts are mostly 8 to 13 cents higher.

• SRW wheat futures have rebounded from earlier lows to post modest gains, underpinned by a softening U.S. dollar.
• Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR estimates Russia’s grain production at 142.4 MMT, up 600,000 MT from its prior forecast. The firm raised its 2023-24 grain forecast by 300,000 MT to 65 MT.  
• Agricultural producers in Ukraine say a new Black Sea corridor could enable exports of up to 2.5 MMT of food a month, almost offsetting the impact of Russia’s decision to quit the Black Sea grain deal.
• World Weather reports rain and snow coming to the U.S. Plains, rain in Europe and southern and western parts of Russia, good soil moisture in India, favorable harvest weather in China and recent rain in Argentina will have a bearish bias to market mentality.
• APK-Inform cut Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest forecast to 53.4 MMT, down from 54.2 MMT, but increased exports in 2023-24 to 34.8 MMT, up from previous estimates of 34.2 MMT.
• USDA reported export inspections of 168,868 MT (6.2 million bu.), which were down 29,055 MT from the previous week and below the pre-report range of 275,000 to 500,000 MT.
• December SRW futures are trading within Friday’s range, with the 40-day moving average of $5.84 is providing support. However, initial resistance at $5.91 1/4 is limiting gains.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower at midmorning.

• Live cattle are plunging following the unexpectedly bearish Cattle on Feed data on Friday. 
• Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed Oct. 1 feedlot inventory up 0.6%, placements up 6.1% and marketings down 10.6% from year-ago levels, all on the bearish side of pre-report expectations.
• Choice boxed beef rose $1.26 Friday to $305.38, while Select firmed $1.22 to $278.70. Movement totaled 140 loads for the day.
• December live cattle gapped below the 100-day moving average of $184.51 and has extended to a three-and-a-half month low. The 200-day moving average of $176.57 serves as the next major area of support, while resistance stands at today’s open of $183.65.

Lean hogs are mostly lower midsession.

• Lean hog futures have given up earlier corrective gains to extend recent selling.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 66 cents to $79.79 as of Oct. 19, extending its seasonal decline.
• The pork cutout value rose 84 cents Friday to $87.97, while movement totaled 263.4 loads.
• China’s hog production is still growing, a farm ministry official said, with a higher-than-normal number of breeding sows set to maintain downward pressure on prices.
• December lean hogs are trading within Friday’s range, with gains limited by resistance at $67.32, while Friday’s low of $65.40 serves as initial support.