Market Snapshot | November 22, 2021

Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midsession and trading inside last week’s range.

• Corn rebounded from last week’s declines with support from the winter wheat market’s price surge.
• USDA reported 618,490 MT of corn inspected for export during the week ended Nov. 18, down from 866,891 MT the previous week and at the low end of trade expectations ranging from 600,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
• USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon will likely show the corn harvest close to finished.
• Large speculators expanded their bullish positions in corn. As of Nov. 16, managed money accounts boosted their net long position to 341,135 futures and options contracts, the biggest fund net long since early May, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed.
• Corn futures remain in an uptrend that began in mid-October but have so far failed to make a sustained push above a longer-term downtrend line drawn from the May and June highs. Chart levels to watch include last week’s low and high at $5.68 and $5.84, respectively.

Soy complex futures are broadly higher, led by gains of nearly 2.0% in soyoil; soybeans are up about 14 cents and soymeal is modestly higher in most contracts.

• Soybeans gained behind spillover from wheat futures and a stronger technical posture from a two-week rally. Soymeal futures extended last week’s rally amid concern over a shortage of the livestock feed additive lysine.
• Traders will watch for any further China business after a flurry of purchases around the middle of this month. USDA reported no new soybean export sales today or the previous two trading days.
• USDA reported 1.684 MMT of soybeans inspected for export during the week ended Nov. 18, down from 2.362 MMT the previous week. Trade expectations ranged from 1.1 to 2.5 MMT.
• Weather conditions in South America remain mostly favorable for crop development. Brazil’s weather “will remain very good for most crop areas in the nation, but net drying in portions of the interior south and far south will be closely monitored,” the forecaster said.
• January soybean futures rose as high as $12.79 1/2 after rising 1.5% last week to $12.63 1/4, the second straight weekly gain. Chart levels to watch include last week’s low and high at $12.38 and $12.89 1/4, respectively.
• Upside targets for market bulls include closing January futures above solid resistance at $13.00.

Wheat futures are sharply higher, led by gains of 27 to 28 cents in nearby HRW contracts.

• Winter wheat futures extended a rally to nine-year highs amid a shrinking global supply outlook, with heavy rains in Australia stirring concern over potential crop damage.
• Australian weather “continues to be the greatest concern with frequent rain falling across the production areas stalling the harvest and raising grain quality concerns,” World Weather Inc. said today. “A close watch on weather in that nation is warranted into December.”
• In the U.S., persistent U.S. Plains dryness is stressing the HRW crop ahead of winter dormancy. Little precipitation is expected this week, and “soil moisture will likely continue to be very short from the Texas Panhandle through eastern Colorado and western Kansas,” World Weather said.
• Russian wheat prices rose for the fifth consecutive week amid strong demand from importers, Reuters reported. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in the first half of December was $334 per MT free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $6 from the previous week, the IKAR consultancy said.
• USDA reported 177,799 MT of wheat inspected for export during the week ended Nov. 18, down from 390,708 MT the previous week and short of trade expectations ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
• March HRW futures reached a contract high at $8.70 1/4 and December hit $8.65 1/4, the highest price for a nearby contract since December 2012.
• December SRW futures hit $8.48 1/2, also a nine-year high, while March futures posted a contract high at $8.59 1/2 after gaining 5 3/4 cents last week.

Cattle futures are higher at mid-morning, led by live cattle’s rally near three-month highs.

• February live cattle jumped to the highest price since late August, supported by the cash market’s rally to 4 1/2-year highs.
• Live steer prices ended last week slightly over $133.00, up nearly $2.00 from last week, as packers stepped up slaughter amid tightening animal supplies. Last week’s slaughter rose 3.4% from the previous week.
• USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report Friday is considered largely price-neutral. An estimated 2.245 million head of cattle were placed in U.S. feedlots during October, up 2.4% from the same month in 2020 and slightly higher than trade expectations for an increase of about 2.2%.
• The number of cattle on feed as of Nov. 1 totaled 11.95 million head, down 0.2% from 11.97 million head a year earlier, matching expectations. Marketings fell 4.5% to 1.788 million head, larger than expected.
• Choice cutout values rose $2.25 Friday to $278.41, down 2.1% from $284.30 at the end of last week but up from a 3 1/2-month low the day before.
• December live cattle rose as high as $134.475, the highest intraday price for a nearby contract since April 2017. February live cattle reached $138.65, the highest price since $138.675 on Aug.31.

Lean hog futures are moderately higher in nearby contracts.

• Hog futures are extending last week’s gains, but buying interest remains limited by sagging cash fundamentals.
• The latest CME lean hog index fell $1.80 to $73.46, the lowest since $72.36 on Feb. 10. Carcass values on national direct markets averaged $54.95 Friday, down from $58.00 at the end of the previous week.
• Wholesale pork extended its slump last week, but movement was generally strong, indicating good demand at lower prices. Pork cutout values rose 13 cents Friday to an average of $89.82, down from $94.71 at the end of last week. Movement totaled 237 loads.
• Meatpackers last week slaughtered an estimated 2.635 million head, up 0.8 % from the previous week but down 3.4% from the same week in 2020. Year-to-date, slaughter is running 2.1% under 2020 levels.
• February lean hogs fell as low as $81.625 earlier today before rebounding. The most-active contract ended last week at $82.475, up 2.4% from the previous week and the fourth consecutive weekly gain. Chart levels to watch include the 40-day moving average around $81.00.