Market Snapshot | March 7, 2023

Corn futures are trading in a narrow range in light trade.
Traders are positioning ahead of Wednesday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report, with traders expecting 2022-23 U.S. ending stocks at 1.308 billion bu., which would be up 41 million bu. from February.
The U.S. requested formal trade consultations with Mexico on Monday over U.S. objections to the country’s plans to limit imports of GMO corn and other agricultural biotechnology.
South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Argentine corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 40 MMT, stating that the weather last week was hot and dry once again and any rainfall this week will be focused across southern production areas. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate at 121.0 MMT.
May corn is trading sideways between initial support at $6.33 3/4 and initial resistance near $6.40 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 5 to 10 cents lower, while May meal futures are around $1 lower and May soyoil is about 180 points lower.

Soybeans are being pressured by soyoil weakness and positioning before Wednesday’s USDA updates.
Traders are expecting U.S. 2022-23 ending stocks at 220 million bu., which would be a 5-million-bu. decrease from February. Focus will largely revolve around USDA’s South American production estimates, primarily Argentina.
South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 31 MMT, noting a neutral to lower bias going forward. Cordonnier left his Brazil soybean estimate at 151.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. states South American rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days from Santa Fe, southern Chaco and northeastern Buenos Aires, Argentina into Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, Uruguay and southwestern Paraguay.
China imported a record volume of soybeans for the first two months of the year as buyers stocked up in anticipation of healthy demand and worries of the delayed harvest in Brazil.
Malaysian palm oil futures continued lower, extending losses for a second straight session as weaker rival vegetable oils pressured prices.
May soybeans are trading inside the previous session’s wide range while holding above initial support near $15.13 1/2. Initial resistance stands at Monday’s high of $15.38 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while spring wheat is mostly 5 to 7 cents lower.

Winter wheat futures are mildly higher despite a strengthening U.S. dollar on U.S. production concerns as winter wheat ratings slip.

Traders are anticipating 2022-23 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 573 million bu., which would be a 5-million-bu. increase from February.
Ukraine has started online talks with partners on extending the Black Sea Grain Initiative but has not held discussions with Russia. It was Kyiv’s understanding that its partners were talking to Moscow.
USDA rated 17% of the winter wheat in top producer Kansas in “good” to “excellent” condition, down from 19% a week earlier. The good/excellent ratings improved three points in Oklahoma to 39%, while Texas was unchanged at 19%.
May SRW wheat made an intraday low just above initial support at $6.89 before rebounding. Initial resistance is at $7.06 1/4.

Live cattle are slightly lower, while feeders are choppy.

Live cattle are posting modest losses as traders remain cautious ahead of cash market development, though underlying fundamentals remain bullish.
Packers purchased 91,000 head of cattle in the negotiated market last week, marking the second highest weekly total for the year, which could slow packer interest in the cash market this week. But cutting margins remain strong, incentivizing them to keep buying.
Choice boxed beef prices rose 88 cents to $290.20 on Monday, while Select fell 39 cents to $276.47, taking the Choice/Select spread to $13.73.
April live cattle are trading narrowly within the previous session’s range. Initial resistance stands near $166.83, while initial support lies around $165.23.

Hog futures are mostly lower, though the lead contract is posting slight gains at midmorning.

Lean hog futures are choppy as traders remain unwilling to actively buy despite firming cash fundamentals.
The CME lean hog index is up another 20 cents to $78.91 as of March 3, extending its seasonal rise. The index has firmed $6.80 over the past six weeks. Over the course of the same period, April lean hog futures have fallen nearly $2.00.
The pork cutout value edged $1.76 higher on Monday with gains in all cuts aside from picnics, on fairly light movement at 264.4 loads.
China imported 1.3 MMT of meat in January and February combined, a 21.2% increase from the same period last year, with much of the year-over-year increase likely driven by pork imports which began to rise in late 2022.
April lean hogs have traded as low as $83.20, above initial support anear $82.86. Initial resistance stands at $84.53.

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