Market Snapshot | March 6, 2023

Corn futures are trading slightly lower despite two daily export sales and prospects for increased export activity out of the Pacific Northwest.
USDA reported a daily corn export sales of 110,000 MT for delivery to Japan and 182,400 MT for delivery to “unknown destinations” in the 2022-23 marketing year. These are the first daily corn sales since Feb. 17.
USDA reported corn export inspections of 899,810 MT (35.4 million bu.) for week ended March 2, which was notably above the pre-report range of 450,000-750,000 MT. Inspections were up 250,507 MT from the previous week.
U.S. exports could rebound in the coming weeks as a combination of drought in Argentina, delays in the Black Sea and late harvest of the Brazilian crop appear to have opened an export window, with renewed competitiveness stemming from the Pacific Northwest.
The Biden administration reportedly plans to escalate its conflict with Mexico over genetically modified U.S. corn with a request (as soon as today) for formal consultations under their free trade agreement.
AgRural reports Brazil’s safrinha corn plantings have advanced to 70% completed, which remains behind last year’s pace of 80%.
May corn is trading narrowly within the previous session’s range, between initial resistance of $6.44 1/4 and initial support at $6.33 3/4.

Soybeans have rebounded from overnight lows, reaching the highest level since Feb. 23 as meal futures lead the way higher.
AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean harvest was 43% done as of last Thursday, though rains continued to slow those efforts.
Argentina rainfall will be greatest in the west and southern parts of the nation over the coming week, but next week “some” relief from dryness may occur in central and east-central parts of the nation, according to World Weather Inc.
Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Monday, breaking a three-session rally, as profit-taking, weaker rival vegetable oils and lower crude prices pressured the market.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 542,238 MT (19.9 million bu.) for week ended March 2, which was down 222,977 MT from last week and below the pre-report range of 625,000 MT and 1.3 MMT.
May soybeans have reached as high as $15.38 1/2, breaching resistance at $15.26 3/4 and $15.34 3/4. Further resistance stands at $15.44 1/2. Initial support lies at $15.09.

SRW wheat futures are 10 to 11 cents lower, while HRW marks 13- to 16-cent losses. Spring wheat is mostly 7 to 9 cents lower.

Winter wheat futures are under pressure as traders anticipate an extension of the Black Sea grain agreement.
Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Sunday that Ankara is working to extend the Black Sea grain deal, saying “we are working hard for the smooth implementation and further extension of the Black Sea grain deal.”
A cold air mass will enter northwestern portions of winter wheat country today and will slowly spread to the southeast through Friday, notes World Weather, with frost and freezes impacting many areas by the end of this week, temporarily slowing any winter wheat development.
Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in “good” condition and could produce a good harvest, according to Ukraine’s academy of agriculture science.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) has increased its estimate of 2022-23 wheat production to a record of 39.2 MMT, up from December’s estimate of 36.6 MMT, which was already a record level.
USDA reported export inspections of 268,136 MT (9.9 million bu.) for week ended March 2, which was down 385,147 MT from the previous week and below the estimated pre-report range of 300,000 and 600,000 MT.
May SRW wheat has traded as low as $6.93 3/4, with next support near $6.82 1/4. Initial resistance is around $7.10.

Live cattle are modestly higher while feeders posting strong gains.

Live cattle are posting slight gains as traders remain cautious buyers despite ongoing strength in the cash market.
Cash cattle prices rose again last week, with traders expecting the cash market will continue to rise amid tightening market-ready supplies and profitable margins, which are being supported by firming wholesale beef prices.
Choice boxed beef rose 82 cents on Friday to $289.32, while Select dropped 72 cents to $276.86, taking the Choice/Select spread to $12.46.
April live cattle are trading between initial resistance near $166.16 and initial support at the 20-day moving average around $164.70.

Hog futures are mostly weaker at mid-morning.

Lean hog futures are choppy with a downside bias as traders remain hesitant to build additional premium relative to the cash market.
The cash market continues to rise seasonally, with the CME lean hog index up 6 cents to $78.71. But traders have shown little interest in building too much premium into spring-and summer-month contracts, in fact they’ve reduced those premiums recently.
While the cash index is firming, the wholesale pork market is stagnant with packers moving a mere 210.9 loads on Friday, despite a 16-cent drop in the cutout value.
April lean hogs have traded as low as $83.475, below initial support near $83.69. Initial resistance is at the 20-day moving average of $85.185.

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