Market Snapshot | March 17, 2023

Nearby corn futures are fractionally lower, with pressure stemming from the soy complex and slumping crude oil futures.
USDA reported a daily sale to China for 191,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year, bringing the four-day total to 2.111 MMT.
The Buenos Aires grains exchange cut its estimate for 2022-23 corn harvest to 36 million tonnes, down from 37.5 million tonnes, suggesting the worst harvest for the crop in seven years.
Parts of far southern as well as north-central and northeastern Argentina will benefit from rain into Saturday and with additional rain in some northern areas March 25-26 and rain throughout the country March 27-30, with late-planted crops likely seeing further improvement in yield potentials, notes World Weather Inc.
May corn has traded as high as $6.38 3/4, where the 20-day moving average serves as initial resistance. Initial support lies at $6.33.

Soybeans are 13 to 21 cents lower, while May meal futures are over $9.50 lower. May soyoil is around 40 points lower.

Soybeans are posting moderate to heavy losses, led by meal futures despite further reductions in Argentina’s crop estimates.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires grains exchange made further cuts to its 2022-23 production forecast to 25 million tonnes on Thursday, down sharply from previous estimates of 29 million tonnes, as the crop continues to be beleaguered by persisting drought.
World Weather Inc. notes Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias will see frequent rain and few opportunities for fieldwork through next Friday, with heavy rain and some possible flooding in Mato Grosso, though shower activity will decline March 25-31 and fieldwork should increase.
May soybeans have reached as low as $14.78, violating initial support at $14.80 ¼, additional support lies near $14.69 1/4. Initial resistance is around $15.00.

SRW wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher, while HRW is 10 to 11 cents higher. Spring wheat is mostly 8 cents higher.

Winter wheat futures are posting slight- to moderate-gains as the U.S. dollar extends weakness from the previous session.
The Kremlin stated earlier today that Russia was extending the Black Sea grain deal for 60 days, echoing previous statements by the Russian Foreign Ministry, however both Ukraine and Turkey have said the deal must be rolled over in full under the existing terms, including the 120-day duration.
Drought in the U.S. western Plains is the most serious out of all dryness in North America, but it could also be fixed faster than some other areas because “normal” rainfall is not all that great, states World Weather.
SRW wheat has traded as high as $7.12 1/2, breaching the 20-day moving average of $7.11, which serves as initial resistance. Initial support remains at $6.92 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are posting moderate losses.

Nearby live cattle are lower despite marking corrective gains in the previous session.
Cash cattle traded $1 to $2 lower this week, any remaining sales will likely hold off until after this afternoon’s Cattle of Feed Report. Traders expect feedlot inventory will be down 4.5% from year-ago to 11.62 million head, suggesting the smallest March 1 inventory since 2017. Feb. Placements are expected to be down 6.0% with marketings 4.4% lower than year-ago levels.
Choice boxed beef prices fell 32 cents on Thursday to $283.95, while Select dropped 87 cents to $271.76, taking the Choice/Select spread to $12.19.
April live cattle are trading within the previous session’s range, with initial support remaining at $161.85. Initial resistance stands near $162.90.

April lean hogs are rebounding off earlier lows, indicating mild buyer interest following a continuation of yesterday’s sharp selloff.
The CME lean hog index is up another 2 cents to $79.97 as of March 15, which is 52 cents above where April futures closed on Thursday, though buyer interest will likely be limited by falling wholesale prices.
The pork cutout value dropped another $1.89 on Thursday to $84.49, the lowest level since the end of February. Though movement improved to 352.2 loads, but the recent price drop suggests packers are having to cut wholesale prices to attract retailer demand.
April lean hogs have dipped as low as $78.55, above initial support near $77.78. Initial resistance is near $82.43.

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