Market Snapshot | March 14, 2023

New Advice: Livestock producers: Extend soymeal coverage... May soymeal futures dropped to our target for extending coverage. We advise livestock producers to extend soybean meal coverage in the cash market by four weeks through the end of April.

Corn futures are 3 to 7 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are notably higher, marking spillover gains from the wheat complex.
• USDA reported a daily export sale of 612,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• A Russian official has said the deal allowing Ukraine to export grain through its Black Sea ports has been extended for 60 days, though Kyiv has rejected the offer, still seeking a 120-day extension.
• South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine corn crop estimate by another 3 MMT to 37 MMT, citing high temperatures over the last 10-15 days have further impacted the crop. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 121 MMT.
• May corn is trading between initial resistance of $6.19 1/2 and initial support of $6.07 3/4.

Soybeans are around unchanged to fractionally lower, while May meal futures are $1.00 lower. May soyoil is up around 75 points.

• Soybeans are edging lower for the fourth straight session as economic fears loom and harvest advances in Brazil.
• World Weather Inc. notes Argentina’s weather will continue to a little too dry for a while longer, with some expected showers proving inadequate in breaking the drought. The forecaster states Brazil’s weather will be less wet in parts of Parana, Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais over the next ten days, although rain is still expected periodically.
• Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian slashed his Argentine soybean estimates by 3 MMT to 28.0 MMT, stating a neutral bias going forward. Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 151 MMT but states his final soybean estimate will depend on what happens in Rio Grande do Sul.
• May soybean have traded as low as $14.84, making an intraday low just above support of $14.82 1/2. Initial resistance stands at the 40-day moving average of $15.08 1/4.
   

SRW wheat futures are 11 to 13 cents higher, while HRW is up 17 to 19 cents. Spring wheat is around 10 cents higher.

• Winter wheat futures are higher as uncertainties grow around the extension of the Black Sea agreement.
• A Russian official has said the deal allowing Ukraine to export grain through its Black Sea ports has been extended for 60 days, though Kyiv has rejected the offer, still seeking a 120-day extension.
• Temperatures will be below average most often in the next two weeks in HRW growing areas, slowing or temporarily stopping winter wheat development from occurring, states World Weather, with an unusually cold weather pattern to persist for a while.
• SRW wheat has reached as high as $6.95 1/2, where the 10-day moving average is serving as resistance. Initial support lies near $6.69 1/4.

Live cattle are mixed while feeders post moderate losses.

• Nearby live cattle are seeing mild corrective buying as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
• Last week’s average cash cattle price rose 38 cents to $165.40, while April cattle futures are trading around $163.80. After moving more cattle than expected last week, packers will likely expect weaker prices from feedlots.
• Choice boxed beef fell 5 cents on Monday to $284.86, while Select rose $2.08 to $273.62, taking the Choice/Select spread to $11.24. Movement was light at 83 loads on the day.
• April live cattle are trading narrowly with initial support near the 50-day moving average near $163.05, while initial resistance is around $164.19.

Hog futures are mixed, with mild weakness in the front-month contract.

• April lean hogs are pivoting around unchanged as buyers remain cautious amid economic uncertainty.
• The CME lean hog index is up 24 cents, extending its gradual seasonal climb.
• Pork cutout value rose $1.00 on Monday to $88.80 with a rise in all cuts except bellies. The cutout is at levels where retailers have been hesitant buyers in the recent past, capping price advances. Movement was moderate on the day at 252.2 loads.
• April lean hogs are trading within the lower third of the previous session, hovering between the 10- and 20-day moving averages near $85.16 and $85.71, respectively.