Market Snapshot | March 10, 2023

Corn futures are up a penny to 2 cents at midmorning.

• Corn futures have rebounded off the overnight low, taking spillover strength from wheat futures and a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index.
• U.S. Census Bureau data showed January corn exports at 3.2 MMT, a three-year low for the month and is 30% below the average, with preliminary data suggesting the lightest February corn shipments in 10 years.
• World Weather Inc. states fieldwork will continue to advance in Brazil around showers and thunderstorms, but delays to soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting will extend deeper into the month which could reduce safrinha corn production.
• May corn futures fell as low as $6.06 3/4, holding above initial support of $6.04 1/2, before rebounding. Initial resistance is at $6.24.

Soybeans are 4 to 6 cents weaker, while May meal futures are around $3.00 lower. May soyoil is down around 40 points.

• Soybeans are facing a second straight day of selling.
• According to U.S. Census Bureau data, U.S. soybean exports in January totaled 8.56 million MMT, which is nearly 40% above the five-year average and is the month’s second highest ever after January 2021. Of the total, 5.7 MMT were to China, a record-high for January.
• Much of Argentina will see warm to hot and dry weather this weekend, causing rising levels of stress and declines in yield potential with exceptions in some southern areas where rains fell Thursday, according to World Weather.
• Malaysian palm oil futures closed at their lowest level in three weeks overnight, ending lower on the week as the oilseed tracked losses in rival edible oils.
• May soybeans have edged below $15.00, pressing below support at $15.01 1/4. Additional support lies at $14.91 3/4, while initial resistance is near the 40-day moving average of $15.16 1/2.
   

SRW and HRW wheat futures are 6 to 8 cents higher. Spring wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher.

• Winter wheat futures are moderately higher as the U.S. dollar is plunging in reaction to this morning’s jobs data.
• Traders expect the Black Sea grain deal to be extended and Russia will likely continue its record fast pace of shipments amid massive inventories and depreciation of the Russian ruble versus the U.S. dollar.
• Limited precip is still advertised for the U.S. west-central and southwestern Plains region, which maintains some production concerns, notes World Weather. However, wheat in the Midwest is rated well, with snow in the Northern Plains favoring the start of spring growth.
• May SRW wheat rebounded from its overnight low but is still well below initial resistance of $6.83 1/2.

Live cattle are modestly lower, while feeders are marking heavy losses.

• Live cattle are mostly lower as traders continue to wait for cash activity to begin.
• After purchasing a large number of cattle last week, packers have drawn out negotiations this week, while feedlots are current and don’t need to move a lot of cattle.
• Wholesale beef prices weakened on Thursday with an 18-cent drop in Choice to $284.60, while Select fell $2.07 to $276.05, suggesting a near-term top, though tight market-ready supplies and reduced slaughter weights should underpin prices.
• April live cattle are trading narrowly around Thursday’s close, with initial support lying at $165.01 and initial resistance at $165.48.

Hog futures are posting strong gains at midmorning.

• April lean hogs are pushing higher as underlying cash fundamentals remain bullish.
• April hogs have extended their premium to the cash index to around $7.50. 
• Pork cutout values rose 73 cents on Thursday to $88.39, led by more than a $2 increase in hams and bellies.
• April lean hogs have extended as high as $87.50, breaching resistance near $86.21 and establishing an intraday high just above resistance of $87.34. Initial support lies near the convergence of the 20- and 40-day moving averages around $85.60.