Market Snapshot | June 30, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 3 cents higher.

• Corn futures are showing mild strength ahead of USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports.
• The report data that has a history of producing significant price moves. Analysts anticipate a modest change in planted corn acres compared to March intentions. June 1 corn stocks are expected to total 4.255 billion bu.
• A derecho ripped across far eastern Nebraska and far northeastern Kansas to northern Missouri, southern Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, resulting in some crop damage. World Weather Inc. does not believe losses will be as great as those of 2020, but assessments are just beginning.
• December corn is trading narrowly within the lower half of Thursday’s range, with the 40-day moving average of $5.39 serving as resistance, while support remains at $5.22.  

Soybeans are 21 to 26 cents higher, while meal futures mostly around $1.00 higher. Soyoil is more than 200 points higher.

• Soybeans are marketing strong corrective gains, with a daily export sale bolstering the move.
• USDA reported a daily export sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2023-24.
• Traders are expecting slight changes in planted soybean acres and June 1 stocks of 812 million bushels.
• The Midwest will experience waves of rain into early next week, bolstering soil moisture, though additional severe weather is possible throughout the area, notes World Weather.
• Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight to mark their first monthly jump in four, lifted by higher Indonesian export levy and a falling ringgit, though gains were limited by poor exports.
• November soybeans have edged above resistance at $12.74 1/4, $12.82 3/4 and $12.90, as well as the 100-day moving average of $12.91, though the 100-day is serving up resistance. Support lies at the 20-day moving average of $12.62 1/4.

SRW wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher, while HRW wheat is 16 to 24 cents higher. HRS wheat is up 10 to 17 cents.

• Wheat futures are being supported by corrective buying ahead of USDA’s Grain Stocks update, which will set final 2022-23 ending stocks. Traders expect June 1 stocks of 611 million bushels.
• Wheat plantings are expected to be little changed from March intentions.
• Wet weather that began in the Midwest Thursday will continue into early next week, slowing crop maturation and harvesting and raising some crop quality concerns, according to World Weather. There will also be potential for hail and damaging wind which could destroy some wheat, but only in a few locations.
• September SRW wheat has pulled back from earlier strength which tested resistance at the 20-day moving average of $6.76, additional resistance stands at $6.83 1/2. Initial support remains at $6.62.

Live cattle and feeders are modestly lower at midsession.

• Live cattle are posting losses after a string of gains in the past three sessions.
• Given tighter supplies in the northern market, packers raised cash cattle bids to steady-with-week-ago prices on Thursday. Combined with the $2 lower trade in the Southern Plains, this week’s average cash price will likely drop around $1 from last week.
• Wholesale beef prices rose Thursday with a 15-cent gain in Choice to $328.08, while Select gained 50 cents to $297.18. Movement was light at 96 loads.
• August live cattle saw early followthrough strength but has turned lower and is currently hovering below the previous session’s close. Resistance stands at $175.19, while support lies at $173.34. 

Lean hogs are mixed with summer-month contracts firmer and losses in deferred months.   

• July lean hogs are notching slight gains despite mildly bearish data in Thursday’s Hogs & Pigs Report.
• The report showed the U.S. hog herd rose 0.1% from year-ago as of June 1, whereas traders expected a 0.7% decline. All categories except spring farrowings and summer/fall farrowing intentions came in higher than expected.
• The CME cash index continued to strengthen with a 46-cent gain to $93.42 as of June 28.
• The pork cutout value rose $3.82 on Thursday to $102.90, while movement totaled 254.3 loads.
• August lean hogs are trading near Thursday’s high, with the 100-day moving average of $92.99 serving as resistance, while support lies at $90.43.