Market Snapshot | July 5, 2023

Corn is mostly 3 to 5 cents lower.

Corn futures are grinding lower amid forecasts for additional rains into mid-July and as traders continue to react to USDA’s surprising jump in planted corn acres.
On Monday, USDA rated 51% of the crop as “good” to “excellent,” up one point from the previous week. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-poing scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.8 points to 339.6, though that was still 24.5 points (6.7%) behind year-ago.
Rain fell on a large part of the western Corn Belt as well from central to southeastern Indiana to the southern and eastern halves of Ohio Monday into this morning with some of the driest areas in eastern Kansas and western Missouri benefitting most from the rain.
Recent rains and forecasts for more into mid-July will ease some immediate moisture concerns. As a result, Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn yield estimate at 175 bu. per acre. He adopted USDA’s acreage estimates from the June 30 Acreage Report. Cordonnier now forecasts production at 15.1 billion bushels.
December corn is pivoting around support at $4.86 1/2, with additional support at $4.70 1/4. Resistance stands at $5.02 3/4.

Soybeans are narrowly mixed, while meal futures are mostly around $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Soyoil is around 100 points higher.

Soybeans have backed well off earlier highs, as pressure on corn and soymeal futures weighs on futures.
USDA rated 50% of the crop as “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday. On our CCI, soybeans fell another 1.1 points to 328.5, which was 26.4 points (7.4%) below last year at this time.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his soybean yield unchanged at 50.5 bu. per acre, and projects a crop of 4.17 billion bu. after adopting USDA’s acreage estimate.
Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Wednesday for a second session, weighed down by a forecast for an increase in June inventories, although expectation for a recovery in July exports limit losses.
November soybeans face resistance at $13.82 1/2, while support lies at Monday’s low of $13.43 1/4.

SRW wheat is 17 to 23 cents higher, while HRW wheat is 38 to 41 cents higher. HRS wheat is up 35 to 40 cents.

Wheat futures are sharply higher amid corrective buying and crop concerns.
USDA trimmed its spring wheat crop rating to 48% “good” to “excellent,” down two points from the previous week. On our CCI, the spring wheat crop fell another 4.8 points to 333.5, which was 34.9 points (9.5%) lower than last year.
U.S. wheat harvesting in the Central Plains could be disrupted in the coming week by heavy rain in Kansas and some immediate neighboring areas, according to World Weather Inc.
Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2023-24 marketing year stood at 276,000 MT as of July 5, according to the country’s ag ministry.
September SRW wheat marked an intraday high of $6.69 1/4, pushing above resistance at $6.52 1/4 and $6.62 3/4. Additional resistance stands at $6.70, while support lies at $6.45.

Live cattle are posting losses at midsession while feeders are mostly lower.

Live cattle are trading lower as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
Packers have fresh contract supplies available but are thought to be short bought on cattle coming out of the holiday following a couple weeks of light purchases. With only three days to wrap up cattle negotiations, packers’ level of activity today should signal whether cash prices will weaken again or break the three-week slide.
Wholesale beef prices firmed 62 cents for Choice to $328.34, while Select rose 67 cents to $294.30. Movement was light at 71 loads. Beef demand typically fades following the Fourth of July until retailers start purchases for Labor Day.
August live cattle is trading narrowly, with support lying at $176.17. Resistance stands at Monday’s high of $176.975.

Lean hogs are higher, with nearby contracts posting stronger gains.

July lean hogs are posting notable gains with support continuing to stem from firming cash fundamentals.
The CME lean hog index continues to strengthen seasonally, firming to $94.31 as of June 30.
The pork cutout value surged $5.55 on Monday to $108.00. Movement totaled 176.6 loads for the day.
August lean hogs gapped higher at the open and extended above resistance at $95.72. Additional resistance stands at $97.11, while support lies at Monday’s high of $95.325.

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