Market Snapshot | January 9, 2023

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

Corn turned mildly higher after a weaker start to daytime trade, following gains in SRW and crude oil futures and a weaker U.S. dollar.
World Weather Inc. notes rain across Argentina will be too infrequent and light during the next two weeks to prevent further declines in crop conditions and soil moisture while hot temperatures through at least next week accelerate increases in crop stress and declines in yield potential.
Ukraine has exported almost 23.6 MMT of grain so far in the 2022-23 season, down from the 33.5 MMT at the same time last year. Of the total, Ukraine has shipped 13.3 MMT of corn.
Taiwan tendered to buy up to 65,000 MT of corn, which can be sourced from the U.S., Brazil, Argentina or South Africa.
Weekly export inspections for week ended Jan 5. totaled 397,585 MT (15.7 million bu.), down from the previous week’s figure of 683,042 MT, but within the expected range of 325,000 to 900,000 MT.
March corn remains within Friday’s trading range, with initial support at $6.48 3/4. Initial resistance lies near $6.58 ¼ and then the 5-day moving average at $5.65 1/2.

Soybeans are 2 to 5 cents higher, while March soymeal is around $3.00 lower and March soyoil is about 20 points higher.

Soybeans are slightly higher but remain within the previous session’s trading range.
AgRural pegged Brazil’s soybean harvest at 0.04% done as of last Thursday, behind 0.2% on the same week a year ago. Early soybean harvest has been slowed by wet conditions.
Well timed rainfall is expected to evolve in most of the southern and western parts of Brazil during the second half of this week into next week with sufficient amounts of moisture to improve topsoil moisture and crop conditions, according to World Weather Inc.
Supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Brazil’s Congress, the Supreme Court and presidential palace in the capital on Sunday.
Travel in and out of mainland China resumed on Sunday as Beijing removed almost all its border restrictions, ending pandemic measures that sealed the country off for three years.
Weekly export inspections for week ended Jan. 5 totaled 1.44 MMT (52.8 million bu.), down from last week’s figure of 1.475 MMT, but within the expected range of 1 MMT to 1.85 MMT.
March soybean futures reached Friday’s high of $15.01 3/4 overnight but struggled to find sustained buying above the 10-day moving average of $14.95 3/4, where initial resistance lies. Initial support lies at the 20-day moving average of $14.87.

Wheat futures are higher, with SRW futures up 12 to 13 cents at midsession.

Wheat futures are posting moderate corrective gains amid strengthening crude oil futures and a lower U.S. dollar index.
Portions of Russia’s western and southern wheat production region along with far northern Ukraine experienced bitter cold conditions during the weekend, but snow cover protected most of the crop from damage, according to World Weather Inc.
Unusually warm weather in December and January could have a negative impact on Ukrainian winter wheat and rapeseed crops, which may lead to lower yields in the wake of large acreage reductions due to Russia’s occupation of its eastern and southern regions.
Weekly export inspections for week ended Jan. 5 totaled 201,673 MT (7.4 million bu.), up from 85,672 MT the previous week and within expectations between 75,000 to 350,000 MT.
March SRW traded as low as $7.40 3/4, above initial support near $7.38 1/2, before bouncing. Initial resistance lies at the previous session’s high of $7.56 3/4.

Live cattle are moderately to sharply higher, pacing gains in the cattle complex.

Nearby live cattle surged higher on corrective buying following Friday’s losses.
Outside markets are also price-supportive amid strength in the stock market and many commodities, while the U.S. dollar index is weaker.
Last week’s cash cattle trade was disappointing at roughly steady levels but traders expect firmer cash prices this week.
Wholesale beef prices firmed on Friday, with Choice up $1.36 and Select $2.39 higher.
February live cattle have traded as high as $158.15, just below initial resistance at $158.17. Initial support lies at Friday’s low of $156.525.

Hog futures are mostly higher midsession; however, the lead February contract is posting losses.

Nearby lean hogs are lower for the seventh straight session amid lacking signs of a cash bottom. Until the cash index shows signs of a seasonal low, traders will be cautious toward the long side of the market in front-month futures.
The CME lean hog index is down 77 cents to $77.49 (as of Jan. 5), the lowest level since Jan. 19, 2022.
Last year at this time, the cash index had bottomed and began rallying to the seasonal high in August, although this year the cash index hasn’t shown signs of bottoming yet.
Deferred lean hog futures are being supported by corrective buying.
February lean hog futures dropped as low as $79.70, the lowest level since Oct. 7. Initial support lies near $79.47.

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