Market Snapshot | January 29, 2024

Corn futures are 2 to 5 cents lower.

• Corn futures are extending Friday’s weakness but have rebounded from earlier lows amid strong gains in soymeal futures, which is easing pressure across the soy and grain complexes.
• World Weather Inc. notes warm to hot temps and mostly dry conditions will occur in much of Argentina this week and some crops are likely to be stressed by the heat and lack of topsoil moisture, while subsoil moisture should be great enough to prevent serious stress in most areas.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 901,958 MT (35.5 million bu.) during the week ended Jan. 25, up 155,025 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of expectations from 700,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
• March corn has extended below support at $4.43 3/4 and $4.41 1/2, with additional support at the Jan. 18 low of $4.36 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $4.47 3/4.

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 7 cents lower, while March meal is more than $8.00 higher. March soyoil is around 130 points lower.

• Soybeans are being pulled from earlier lows by notable strength in soymeal futures after notching a fresh near-term low in early trade.
• Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean harvest had reached 11% of the planted area as of last Thursday, up five percentage points from the previous week and above the 5% seen at the same time last year, according to AgRural.
• A sharp contrast in weather will occur into Saturday as regular rain falls on much of northern Brazil while Paraguay and southern Brazil see little rain and warm to hot temps that will allow for rapid fieldwork with soil moisture adequate to support most developing crops, states World Weather.
• USDA reported soybean export inspections of 889,717 MT (32.7 million bu.) during the week ended Jan. 25, down 295,239 MT from the previous week but within the expected range of 500,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
•  March soybeans have extended below support at $12.01 1/2, with additional support at $11.93 3/4. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $12.19 3/4.

Winter wheat futures are around 8 to 11 cents lower, while HRS is mostly a nickel to 7 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are facing spillover pressure from corn weakness and U.S. dollar strength.
• An extended cold spell helped India’s wheat crop during its vegetative growth, but a rising temps expected in the next few days could impact the crop during the crucial grain formation stage. While India’s fertile plains have seen a chilly winter, a lack of snowfall in the mountainous regions has raised concern of a sudden, abrupt rise in temps.
• Egypt will temporarily suspend wheat trading on the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange due to speculation that led to high prices. The country’s supply ministry also noted the country plans to import around 7 MMT of wheat this year.
• USDA reported wheat export inspections of 264,666 MT (9.7 million bu.) during the week ended Jan. 25, down 50,520 MT from the previous week and below expectations of 350,000 to 550,000 MT.
• March SRW futures have tested support at the 10-day moving average of $5.95 1/4 and $5.90 1/4, with additional support at $5.80 1/4. Initial resistance stands at the 20- and 100-day moving averages of $6.01 1/2 and $6.05.

Live cattle and feeders are posting mostly moderate gains at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures are mostly higher as traders expect cash fundamentals to continue to improve this week.
• Packers raised cash cattle bids last week and traders anticipate firmer cash prices again this week as plants try to normalize slaughter schedules following holiday- and weather-related delays.
• Wholesale beef prices strengthened Friday, with Choice rising $1.85 to $300.53, while Select firmed $1.28 to $289.13, further narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $11.40. Movement was light, however, at 76 loads.
• February live cattle are trading within Friday’s range, with support at $177.61 while resistance stands at $179.21.

Lean hogs are choppy at midsession.

• February hog futures are pausing after last week’s sharp gains.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 23 cents to $69.90 as of Jan. 25, extending the slow and steady seasonal climb this month.
• The pork cutout value rose 60 cents to $89.51 on Friday, amid gains in all cuts aside from primal ribs. Movement totaled 269.8 loads.
• February lean hogs are trading within Friday’s range, with initial resistance at the previous session’s high of $75.325, while initial support lies at $74.04.