Market Snapshot | January 17, 2023

Corn futures have turned off overnight lows to mark mild gains.

Corn is trading slightly higher after reversing overnight losses with support from crude oil futures, which are trading above $80.00 per barrel.
USDA reported a daily export sale 0f 150,000 MT to Columbia for the 2022-23 marketing year.
Brazil’s ANEC estimates corn exports will reach 5.178 MMT in January, up from the previous week’s forecast of 5.024 MMT.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his corn crop estimate 1 MMT to 44 MMT as early planted corn yields will be hurt and plantings of later-seeded corn will be reduced. Cordonnier kept the Brazil corn estimate at 125 MMT.
World Weather Inc. notes Argentina’s bottom line remains of concern, though rains Friday into Saturday will provide some significant relief to corn, sorghum and soybean crops, though early season corn production may not change much due to the lateness of the season, but some improvements will be possible.
Weekly export inspections for week ended Jan. 12 reported 774,461 MT inspected for export, exceeding the range of expectations between 400,000 and 700,000 MT. Inspections were up 373,353 MT from the previous week.
March corn traded as low as $6.68 3/4 overnight, falling below initial support at $6.70 ¾, with next support lying ag $6.66 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $6.77 ¾.

Soybeans are 2 to 5 cents lower, while March meal futures are around $0.70 lower and March soyoil is over 40 points higher.

Soybeans are slightly lower on mild profit-taking following last week’s sharp gains.
USDA reported a daily sale of 119,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to “unknown destinations” during the 2022-23 marketing year.
Brazilian soybean grower will harvest a record crop just below 153 MMT in the 2022-23 cycle, driven by a rise in planted area and favorable weather in most parts of the country, according to a Reuters poll.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine soybean crop estimate another 2 MMT to 39 MMT, noting lower yield potential and reduced planted area due to the ongoing drought. The consultant also cut Paraguay’s soybean crop by 1 MMT to 9 MMT but kept Brazil’s estimate at 151 MMT.
China’s economic growth in 2022 fell to one if its worst levels in nearly a half century as the fourth quarter was buffered by strict Covid restrictions and weak property demand. China’s GDP in 2022 expanded 3.0%, falling short of the official target “around 5.5%” and sharply below 8.4% growth in 2021.
USDA’s weekly export inspection report revealed 2.075 MMT inspected for export in the week of Jan. 12, an increase of nearly 620,000 MT from the previous week. The weekly figure exceeded the range of expectations between 900,000 MT and 1.925 MMT.
March soybeans fell as low as $15.12 1/2 overnight, breaching initial support at $15.16 1/4. Next support lies at $15.04 3/4. Initial resistance stands at Friday’s high of $15.33.

Wheat futures are lower, with spring wheat futures marking 6 cent losses.

SRW wheat futures are lower as U.S. export prospects continue to wane amid strong competition from global suppliers.
World Weather Inc cites U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas are expecting three weather disturbances in the next ten days, but the southwestern portions of the region may not get much relief from drought.
Brazil’s ANEC raised its forecast for Brazil wheat exports to 753,044 tonnes in January, up from its previous estimate for 4446,105 tonnes.
Russian agriculture consultancy, IKAR raised its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2022-23 season to 45.5 million tonnes from 44 million.
Weekly export inspections for week ended Jan. 12 reported 320,473 MT inspected for export, which was up from the previous week’s figure by over 110,000 MT and on the higher end of pre-report estimates ranging from 150,000 to 400,000 MT.
March SRW traded as low as $7.28 3/4, falling below initial support of $7.31 3/4. Next support stand at last week’s low of $7.20 1/2. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $7.44 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are steadily lower at midmorning.

Nearby live cattle futures are moderately lower as traders anticipate cash market development.
Heavy snow is expected from northeastern Colorado through Nebraska into Iowa tonight and Wednesday causing travel delays and stress to some livestock, according to World Weather Inc.
Cash cattle average $156.78 last week, down 96 cents from the previous week. February live cattle ended last week at $157.725, a modest 94.5 cent premium over last week’s average cash price.
Traders will likely continue to be cautious buyers as cash trade has been disappointing since the start of the year.
Choice boxed beef rose 81 cents on Monday to $277.43, while Select fell 34 cents to $256.55 for a $20.88 spread. Packers moved 91 loads of product on the day.
February live cattle remain within the previous session’s trading range, with first support lying at $157.03. Initial resistance stands at Friday’s high of $158.15.

Hog futures are notably higher, with deferred contracts making stronger gains.

Lean hogs are higher after reaching the lowest level since early Oct. last week.
China’s pork output in 2022 increased by 4.6% from 2021, the highest since 56.71 million tonnes recorded in 2014.
The CME lean hog index is down 66 cents to $74.83 (as of Jan. 12), extending the sharp seasonal price decline.
Pork cutout value fell $1.05 on Monday, though packers moved a solid 445.4 loads on the day.
Buyer interest will likely remain limited until cash market fundamentals signal a seasonal bottom has been reached.
February lean hog futures have traded as high as $79.90, breaching initial resistance at $79.475. Additional resistance stands at $80.30. First support lies at Thursday’s low of $77.575.

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