Market Snapshot | January 10, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents higher at midsession.

Corn has reversed earlier losses as traders await the USDA’s barrage of report data on Thursday.
Firming price action in soybeans and soymeal is aiding corn’s midmorning turnaround.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine corn crop estimate 1 MMT to 45 MMT “due mostly to expected low yields of early planted corn.” He maintains a lower bias. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 125 MMT.
World Weather Inc. says Argentina’s central and south will continue to struggle with dryness, despite a few showers infrequently during the next two weeks.
Some welcome precip will fall late Wednesday and Thursday in northern Argentina benefiting cotton and minor grain and oilseed crops.
March corn rebounded from a test of initial support at $6.48 1/4. First resistance stands at $6.56 1/4, which is also being tested.

Soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher, while March meal futures are around $1 higher and March soyoil is near unchanged.

Soybeans have bounced off their lows as turnaround strength in meal futures provides spillover support.
USDA reported a daily export sale of 174,181 MT of soybeans to Mexico for the 2022-23 marketing year.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine soybean crop estimate another 2 MMT to 41 MMT, citing “continued dryness and the possibility not all intended soybeans will get planted.” He maintains a lower bias.
Most of Brazil will experience waves of rain during the next week to ten days and the moisture results will be good for most crops, though it will continue to slow early harvest efforts, according to World Weather Inc.
Malaysian palm oil futures slid over 3% on Tuesday to hit their lowest levels in more than two weeks as exports drop. That is pressuring soyoil.
March soybean futures traded as low as $14.74 before bouncing. Near-term support is at the 40-day moving average of $14.70. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average near $14.96.

Wheat futures are lower, led by winter wheat contracts which are 10 to 13 cents lower.

Wheat futures are falling as the U.S. dollar index is higher and demand woes linger. Strength in the corn market has pulled wheat well off its earlier lows.
Wheat exporters in the U.S. ended 2022 on the lowest note in over four decades as short supplies and cheaper overseas competition continued pushing U.S. wheat aside, according to Reuters.
India’s wheat production is set to jump to a record after all-time high prices prompted farmers to expand planting areas with high-yielding varieties and good weather conditions.
Russia’s wheat prices have remained largely unchanged since the start of the year in thin holiday trading but may trend upwards as severe frosts hamper winter crops.
Eastern winter crop areas in Russia and Ukraine will not see much precipitation this week, although it will not be completely dry, according to World Weather.
March SRW traded as low as $7.20 1/2, the lowest level since September. 2021. Initial support is at $7.20, while initial resistance stands at $7.36.

Live cattle are higher at midmorning with feeders mostly firmer.

Nearby live cattle are extending yesterday’s gains as followthrough buying occurs after the previous session’s strong performance.
Buyer interest is somewhat limited as traders await cash cattle trade, which will likely remain inactive until the second half of the week.
Packer demand for cash cattle is expected to be greater this week, with signs pointing toward packers paying higher prices for cash cattle than last week’s $157.74 average.
Choice beef prices jumped $3.15 on Monday, while Select was up 26 cents, putting the spread at a strong $26.54.
February live cattle posted a bullish reversal on Monday, which puts the contract high at $159.175 as near-term resistance, while Monday’s low at $156.524 is near-term support.

Hog futures are lower, with the nearby contracts posting the heaviest losses.

Buyer interest in hog futures remains limited by persisting cash market pressure.
The CME lean hog index is down another 70 cents to $76.79 (as of Jan. 6) matching the level from Jan. 19 last year.
While hog slaughter is expected to run about 2% behind a year-ago through the first half of 2023, based on the USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report data, near-term numbers could be stronger as plants catch up after recent slowdowns.
The cash market will likely continue in a soft tone as market-ready supplies remain ample.
February lean hog futures dropped as low as $79.625, testing initial support at $79.79 for the second straight session. Initial resistance lies at the previous session’s close at $80.80.

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