Corn is mostly unchanged to penny higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures are modestly firmer ahead of USDA’s data release at 11 a.m. CT.
- Today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report will be a highlight of the grain-trading week. Corn traders are expecting the agency to significantly reduce this year’s U.S. corn production level, from that seen last year. Traders are also expecting a slight rise in U.S. and global corn stocks, compared to the April USDA S&D report. Analysts expect 2026-27 corn production at 15.934 billion bu., on average at a 183 bu. acre yield. Old-crop ending stocks are expected to be 2.131 billion bu., while new-crop ending stocks are estimated to be 1.933 billion bu., on average.
- Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn crop estimates of 134 MMT and 62 MMT, respectively.
- USDA reported corn plantings were 57% complete as of May 10, up 19 percentage points from the previous week and five points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 23%.
- Ukrainian grain traders’ union UGA estimates the 2026-27 Ukrainian corn crop at 26 MMT, up from 22 MMT in 2025-26.
- July corn futures are testing resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.76, with additional resistance around $4.80, then the May 5 high of $4.87 1/2.
Soybeans are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher. Soymeal is around $1.80 higher, while soyoil is 70 points higher.
- Soybeans are posting modest gains amid support from both meal and soyoil.
- Analysts expect USDA to peg 2026-27 soybean production at 4.445 billion bu., at a 53 bu. per acre yield. Old-crop ending stocks are expected to be pegged at 345 million bu., while new-crop ending stocks are expected at 364 million bu., on average.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine production estimates unchanged at 180 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively.
- USDA estimated soybean plantings were 49% complete, up 16 percentage points from the previous week and 13 points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 20%.
- Oil World forecasts global biodiesel output at 67.10 MMT, up from 61.30 MMT in 2025.
- July soybeans are facing resistance at $12.21 ¼, which is backed by resistance at $12.29 1/2. Support is layered at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $12.03 to $11.85 3/4.
Wheat futures are 15 to 18 cents higher.
- SRW wheat futures are solidly firmer after USDA trimmed the winter wheat crop rating in its weekly Crop Progress Report Monday afternoon.
- Analysts expect USDA to peg all wheat production at 1.735 billion bu. In its initial 2026-27 wheat production forecast. If realized, it would be down notably from 1.985 billion bu. for the 2025-26 crop.
- USDA rated the winter crop as 28% good to excellent as of Sunday, down 3 percentage points from the previous week and the lowest time reading for this time of year since 2022.
- IKAR agriculture consultancy forecasts Russia’s 2026-27 wheat exports at 46.5 MMT vs. 44.5 MMT in 2025-26.
- Safras & Mercado projects the 2026-27 Brazilian wheat crop at 6.16 MMT, vs. 6.85 MMT in its previous forecast.
- July SRW futures are testing resistance at the 10-day moving average, though additional resistance stands at $6.46, then at the April 30 high of $6.71 1/2. Initial support is at the 20-day moving average of $6.22 1/2.
Live cattle and feeders are lower at midsession.
- Cattle futures are facing technical selling despite improving cash and wholesale fundamentals.
- Cash cattle trade averaged $258.52, a new record, last week. That was up $3.50 from the previous week.
- Choice boxed beef rose $2.83 on Monday to $291.22, while Select rose $6.48 to $391.49. Movement totaled 102 loads.
- June cattle futures are trading mostly between the 20- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around $240.00 and the 40-day moving average, currently trading at $236.99. Additional resistance/support stands at the May 1 high of $246.55 and the 100-day moving average, trading at $231.71.
Hog futures are lower at midmorning.
- June lean hogs continue to face technical and fundamental weakness as cash and wholesale fundamentals remain weak, seasonally.
- The CME lean hog index is down another 38 cents to $90.41 as of May 8.
- The pork cutout value fell 58 cents to $96.98 on Monday, led by a $4 decline in primal bellies. Movement totaled 295.7 loads.
- June lean hogs are trading within Monday’s range, limited by the 10- and 20-day moving averages, trading at $100.59 and $101.38. Initial support lies at $99.12, then at last week’s low of $98.60.