Market Snapshot | Grains, soy steady ahead of USDA

Corn futures are mostly a penny higher at midmorning.

• Nearby corn futures are posting light corrective gains as technical resistance and a firmer U.S. dollar crimp momentum.
• USDA will release its Supply & Demand and Crop Production Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT. They will feature updates to the old-crop balance sheets and the first official look at the 2025-26 marketing year. Click here to view pre-report expectations.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 1.224 MMT (48.2 million bu.) for the week ended May 8, down 392,000 MT from the previous week and shy of pre-report expectations from 1.3 MMT to 1.75 MMT.
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba signaled that increasing corn imports from the U.S. would be among options in trade negotiations with Washington, but warned Japan would never sacrifice its agriculture industry to obtain lower auto tariffs. Japan has made little headway in two rounds of trade talks with the United States. Agreeing to buy more corn is a less controversial option for Japan than increasing rice imports.
• Analyst APK-Inform cut its 2025 grain production forecast for Ukraine by 3.8% to 55.3 MMT, largely because of an expected smaller corn crop. APK-Inform now projects Ukraine’s corn production at 27 MMT, down 7.3% from its prior outlook. The firm cut its 2025-26 grain export forecast by 4% (1.7) MMT to 40.9 MMT.
• July corn futures continue to hover near the $4.50 level. Near-term support is at last week’s low of $4.42 1/4.

Soybeans are 8 to 11 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $1.00 higher. Soyoil is 100-plus points firmer.

• The soy complex is collectively higher, with export demand and lingering optimism around weekend trade talks with China.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 120,000 MT to Mexico. Of the total, 24,000 MT is for 2024-25 and 96,000 MT for 2025-26.
• The U.S. and China have agreed to dramatically reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for a 90-day period following high-level talks in Geneva, Switzerland. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will drop from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods will be reduced from 125% to 10%. The tariff reductions take effect on Wednesday and apply to most of the duties imposed in April, covering a wide range of consumer and industrial goods.
• USDA reported soybean export inspections of 426,077 MT (15.7 million bu.), up 92,423 MT from the previous week and within pre-report expectations from 250,000 to 550,000 MT.
• July soybeans pushed to the highest level since Feb. 24 before easing gains. Resistance stands at $10.67 3/4 and today’s high at $10.72. Initial support lies at 20-, 10-, 200- and 100-day moving averages, layered from $10.50 1/4 to $10.47 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents firmer, while HRS futures are mostly a penny lower.

• SRW wheat futures have rebounded from the fresh contract low scored in overnight trade, though a firmer dollar is limiting short-covering interest.
• USDA will give its initial winter wheat production estimate in this morning’s report.
• USDA reported wheat export inspections of 405,170 MT (14.9 million bu.) during the week ended May 8, down 6,641 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
• July SRW futures forged a new contract low at $5.15 1/2, though support lies at $5.17. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $5.30 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are posting hefty gains at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are extending recent strength, driven by another week of record cash cattle trade and the shutting of the border to Mexican cattle.
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Sunday announced the suspension of live cattle, horse and bison imports through ports of entry along the U.S./Mexico border in response to the rapid northward advance of the New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The ban comes as new detections were confirmed as far north as Oaxaca and Veracruz — just 700 miles from the U.S. border.
• Wholesale beef prices slipped on Friday, with Choice down $1.92 to $345.97, while Select fell $2.03 to $331.17. Movement totaled 105 loads.
• June live cattle gapped higher at the open and scored a contract high, with resistance serving at $217.68, while support lies at $215.66.

Hog futures are notably firmer at midsession.

• Lean hogs are sharply higher in most contracts amid elevated demand optimism in the wake of positive weekend talks with China.
• The CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $89.99 as of May 8, the second straight daily decline after a three-week string of gains.
• Pork cutout rose $3.33 on Friday to $97.83 with gains in all cuts aside from primal bellies. Movement was strong at 417.03 loads.
• June lean hogs gapped higher at the open with resistance at $100.00. Support is at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, currently trading at $98.51 and $98.33.