Market Snapshot | February 21, 2023

Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midmorning.

Corn futures are choppy despite strength in soybeans and soymeal.
Frost occurred in portions of Argentina Saturday morning after similar conditions Friday in southwestern areas, though World Weather Inc. believes most summer crop areas were not cold enough for a long enough time to experience permanent damage.
Argentina will see a restricted rainfall pattern the next week to 10 days.
AgRural reports 40% of Brazil’s safrinha corn was planted as of late last week, compared to 53% last year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier notes the ideal planting window closes at the end of February and when it does, there will likely be 50% of the corn left to plant.
USDA reported corn export inspections of 622,841 MT (24.5 million bu.) for week ended Feb. 16, which was up 59,393 MT from the previous week, but the cumulative pace was 36.6% behind year-ago.
March corn has traded a 7 1/2 cent range and is pivoting around the 10- and 20-day moving averages around $6.78. Initial resistance is at $6.81 1/4, while initial support is at $6.75 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 10 to 13 cents higher, while March meal futures are nearly $4.00 higher and March soyoil is up around 30 points.

Soybeans are steadily higher, with meal futures leading gains amid growing uncertainty around Argentine production potential.
Paraguay and much of Brazil outside of some northeastern and a few far southern areas will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks that will maintain favorable conditions for crop development while causing interruptions to fieldwork, notes World Weather Inc.
Brazilian farmers have harvested 25% of the soybean planted area for 2022-23 through last Thursday, an 8% advance from the previous week, according to AgRural. Harvest was 33% complete at the same time a year ago.
South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean estimate by 2 MMT to 34 MMT, noting dry conditions, high temperatures and light to moderate frost in what is essentially the middle of summer. Cordonnier left his Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 151 MMT.
Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower today on profit-taking after a three-day rally tracking weakness in rival edible oil prices, though concerns over potentially lower production limited losses.
USDA reported export inspections of 1.578 MMT (58.0 million bu.) for week ended Feb. 16, down 115,222 MT from the previous week. Cumulative inspections are outpacing last year by 3.5%.
March soybeans gapped higher overnight, trading as high as $15.47 1/4. Initial resistance stands at the Feb. 13 high of $15.55 1/2, while initial support lies at $15.23 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents lower, while HRW is mostly 1 to 2 cents higher. Spring wheat is 1 to 3 cents lower.

Winter wheat futures are mixed with the dollar pressuring SRW wheat futures.
Leaders from Russia and Turkey will discuss the Black Sea grain export initiative “in the near future,” though there has been no exact date set, RIA Novosti reported, citing a source familiar with the situation. Last week, Ukrainian officials said they expected meetings to occur this week.
World Weather notes winterkill is not likely to be much of a threat in the Northern or Central Plains this week due to snow cover being present in all areas that will be vulnerable to the coldest temperatures.
Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 790,000 MT of milling wheat, with Feb. 28 the deadline for price offers. Traders note the unusually large tonnage sought in the tender is likely connected to needs following the recent earthquake.
USDA reported export inspections of 373,429 MT (13.7 million bu.) for week ended Feb. 16, which was down 98,898 MT from the previous week. Shipments are running 2.8% behind a year-ago.
March SRW wheat futures have dropped below the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $7.60 1/2 and $7.56 3/4, respectively, with further support lying at $7.53 1/2. Initial resistance is at $7.71 1/2.

Live cattle are mostly firmer, while feeders are posting moderate gains.

Live cattle are mostly firmer as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
Cash cattle averaged $161.17 last week, a $1.55 increase from the previous week. With tightening market-ready supplies, traders expect cash cattle to trade higher again this week, though packers are likely to draw out negotiations in hopes of getting feedlots to sell at steady/weaker prices.
Cash cattle trade may also be delayed until Friday afternoon, following USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report.
Wholesale beef prices climbed higher on Monday, with Choice jumping $1.85 to $282.89, with a $2.16 gain in Select to $268.05, taking the Choice/Select spread to $14.84.
April live cattle have reached as high as $164.40, with $164.94 serving as initial resistance, while support lies at $162.71.

Hog futures are marking strong gains at midsession.

April lean hog futures are surging higher on strengthening technicals and cash fundamentals.
The CME lean hog index is 56 cents higher today, extending the recent string of gains as it continues to rebound from the seasonal low.
Pork cutout value rose $5.63 on Monday, with gains in all cuts, led by a $25 jump in bellies.
April lean hogs gapped higher to begin the session and have risen as high as $89.875. Resistance stands at the 100-day moving average near $90.14, while initial support is at the 20-day moving average of $85.53.

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