Market Snapshot | February 17, 2023

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

Corn futures are marking mild gains despite plunging crude oil futures and continued U.S. dollar strength.
USDA reported a daily corn export sale of 120,800 MT to “unknown destinations” for the 2022-23 marketing year.
Negotiations to extend the UN-backed Black Sea grain deal will begin in a week, according to a senior Ukrainian official. The agreement was extended by 120 days on Nov. 18.
March corn continues to trade a close range between the 10- and 20-day moving averages near $6.78 and the 100-day moving average of $6.73 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher, while March meal futures are more than $1.00 lower and March soyoil is modestly lower.

Soybeans are posting slight gains, as Argentina is forecast to receive dry weather through mid-week next week.
Unusually cool temperatures occurred in southwestern Argentina this morning with extreme lows of 37 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit, though readings were not cold enough for a long enough period to induce any threat of damage, states World Weather Inc.
Brazil’s wettest weather is still expected in Parana, Sao Paulo, Mato Grasso do Sul and southern Minas Gerais where delays in soybean harvest are most likely, according to World Weather.
Malaysian palm oil futures hit a more than six-week high overnight and were set for a second consecutive weekly gain, as stronger rival edible oils and a weaker ringgit lent support.
March soybeans are trading narrowly within the upper range of the previous session. Initial resistance remains at $15.32 1/4 with initial support at the 20-day moving average of $15.22 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are steady to fractionally higher, while HRW is 4 to 6 cents higher. Spring wheat is mostly a penny higher.

Winter wheat futures are higher as Black Sea supply issues resurface ahead of renewed talks of extending the Black Sea grain deal.
Ukraine’s grain export pace decreased by 23% to 1.1 MMT in the week ended Feb. 16 due to delays in Istanbul inspections and a current queue of 140 vessels waiting to be cleared, of which more than 80% are for entry into the Black Sea, according to government data.
Ukrainian farmers have harvested 53.9 MMT of grain in bunker weight from 98% of the expected area, according to the agriculture ministry. Bunker weight is 5% to 7% higher than clean weight as grains should be dried and cleaned.
World Weather Inc. notes snow will fall on the Northern Plains and upper Midwest during the middle part of next week, but providing some beneficial moisture when the snow melts.
March SRW wheat is respecting support at the 20-day moving average near $7.58 1/2. Additional support is at the 40-day average near $7.57 and the 50-day average at $7.55 1/2. The 10-day average at $7.68 1/4 is near-term resistance.

Live and feeder cattle futures are posting solid gains at midsession.

February live cattle have carved fresh contract highs as traders anticipate higher cash cattle trade with packers thought to be short-bought.
Cash trade has been light at slightly firmer prices compared with last week.
Choice boxed beef jumped another $3.88 to $279.55, while Select rose $1.45 to $262.64, taking the Choice/Select spread to $16.91. Choice beef has risen nearly $15 since Feb. 3 and is nearly $37 above the December low.
Packer margins have improved significantly from rising wholesale prices, incentivizing them to actively compete for a tightening supply of market-ready cattle.
April live cattle have traded as high as $163.25, just above initial resistance near $163.19 and initial support at $162.41.

Hog futures are moderately higher at midsession.

April lean hog futures are solidly higher following two days of corrective selling, with strong cash fundamentals spurring buyer interest.
The CME lean hog index continues to rise, gaining another 23 cents to $75.87 as of Feb. 15.
Pork cutout values rose $2.12, to $83.06, led by a $6.51 increase in bellies. All cuts were higher except ribs, which turned $1.35 lower.
The premium in April lean hog futures has pushed back above $10 this morning. That’s wider than the roughly $6 seasonal average into mid-April.
April lean hogs have reached as high as $87.10, with resistance at $87.425. Initial support lies at the 20-day moving average of $85.45.

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