Market Snapshot | February 15, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are lower with a strengthening U.S. dollar following stronger-than-expected CPI data on Tuesday and weakening crude oil futures weighing on commodities.
• USDA reported daily corn export sales of 213,370 MT for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• Ukraine appealed to the United Nations and Turkey earlier today to press Russia to immediately stop hindering Ukrainian grain shipments.
• Concerns loom over Brazil’s safrinha second corn crop, as the country’s No. 2 producer, Parana, is expected to continue to receive heavy rains for at least the next week. As of Monday, 12% of the state’s corn was planted, compared to 28% last year and 23% on average.
• World Weather Inc. maintains drier-than-usual weather in southern Argentina will finish out the month of February, pressuring production potentials, while northern Argentina will get some timely rainfall over the next two weeks.
• Weekly ethanol grind for week ended Feb. 10 showed a 14,000 barrel per day (bpd) increase over the previous week to an average of 1.014 million bpd. That 0.5% above the same week last year. Stocks rose 922,000 barrels to 25.34 million barrels.
• March corn is pivoting around the 10- and 20-day moving averages around $6.77 1/2, with solid support at the 100-day moving average of $6.73 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $6.86 1/2.

Soybeans are 15 to 20 cents lower, with March meal futures around $8.00 lower and March soyoil about 60 points lower.

• Soybeans are lower as harvest advances in Brazil, despite persisting production concerns in southern areas of the country and Argentina.
• Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) are expected to report January soybean crush at 181.7 million bu., according to a Reuters survey, which would reflect a 2.3% increase from December, but a 0.3% decline from January 2022.
• Mato Grasso, Brazil will experience increasing rainfall frequency coverage and intensity this weekend into next week, slowing harvest activity, states World Weather.
• A farmer group says drought in Rio Grande do Sul has limited soybean crop potential in the state. The worst-case scenario would be a 40% decrease in production to 12.6 MMT, a notable drop from potential of 21 MMT.
• Soymeal exports from India are increasing sharply as drought has curbed output from top exporter Argentina, with a combined 500,000 MT expected to be shipped from the South Asian country in February and March.
• Malaysian palm oil fell on Wednesday as export data from cargo surveyors revealed in a slowdown and lower prices of rival edible oil cast a negative tone.
• March soybeans traded as low as $15.16 1/2, dropping below the 20-day moving average of $15.19 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are 13 to 17 cents lower, with HRW 12 to 15 cents lower. Spring wheat is 4 to 8 cents lower.

• Winter wheat futures are facing pressure from additional increases to Russian exports, along with unfavorable outside markets and rain prospects in the U.S. Plains.
• Ukrainian shallow water ports are facing a shortage of barges for transshipment of grains from Ukraine to the Romanian port of Constanta amid further signs that the growing uncertainty over the extension of the Black Sea grain deal is forcing traders into other options.
• SovEcon raised its 2022-23 Russian wheat export forecast by 100,000 MT to 44.2 MMT amid what it expects will be a record pace of shipments for the February through June period. That would be a notable increase from 33.4 MMT in 2021-22.
• World Weather notes U.S. hard red winter wheat areas from Colorado through Kansas to Nebraska will receive three to seven inches of snow today with a few greater amounts.
• March SRW futures have traded as low as $7.66 3/4, violating several levels of support.

Live cattle are mixed, while feeders post slight gains.

• Live cattle have turned choppy after reaching fresh contract highs early in the session as traders await cash market direction.
• While the cash market is firming and long-term fundamentals are bullish, traders remain cautious around building too much premium into futures.
• February live cattle finished Tuesday, $2.53 above last week’s average cash price, while the April contract maintained a $5.055 premium. Active cash cattle trade isn’t expected until Friday unless packers unexpectedly raise cash bids prior to that.
• Wholesale beef trade showed strength on Tuesday with Choice rising $2.11 to $272.06 and Select $2.57 higher to $258.78, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $13.28. Movement remained strong at 113 loads.
• Feeders are edging higher due to weakness in the grain complex.
• April live cattle have reached as high as $162.60, just below initial resistance around $162.78. Initial support lies at $161.28.

Hog futures marking solid losses at midmorning.

• April lean hog futures are lower with technical pressure keeping trade within the month-long consolidation range.
• The CME lean hog index is up 54 cents to $75.18 as of Feb. 13, which is the ninth straight daily gain and 13 of the last 15 days being higher.
• Pork cutout value firmed 14 cents to $81.88 Tuesday on solid movement of 315.4 loads.
• April lean hogs are trading within the previous session’s range, between initial resistance at $88.10 and initial support at $86.10.