Market Snapshot | February 14, 2023

Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are favoring the upside, with support from the wheat complex offsetting pressure from easing crude oil futures.
• Mexico scrapped its January 2024 deadline to ban GMO corn for animal feed and industrial use but kept plans to prohibit the use of grain for human consumption along with the herbicide glyphosate.
• South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2 MT to 123 MT, citing delayed safrinha plantings and the possibility of less acres. Cordonnier also lowered Argentina’s corn crop estimate by 1 MT to 43 MT, noting hot and dry conditions.
• World Weather Inc. notes southern Argentina will finish out the month of February drier than usual with crop moisture stress still pressuring production potential, though northern areas will get some timely rainfall over the next two weeks to improve minor grain production areas.
• March corn is trading narrowly within the upper range of the previous session. Initial resistance is at $6.88 3/4, while initial support lies at $6.79.

Soybeans are narrowly mixed, while March meal futures are more than $1.00 higher and March soyoil is around 30 points lower.

• Soybeans are choppy in light trade as traders analyze South American weather and production potential.
• Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean estimate 2 MT to 36 MT, noting a neutral bias going forward. Cordonnier left his Brazil estimate unchanged at 151 MT.
• Brazil’s wettest conditions will remain in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais during the next two weeks, likely increasing concerns with conditions of unharvested soybeans, according to World Weather.
• The U.S. soybean crush in January likely increased from December but declined a bit from the same month a year-ago, with analysts expecting crush at 181.656 million bushels. NOPA will release its updated data at 11 a.m. CT on Wednesday.
• March soybeans are pivoting around the previous session’s close. Initial resistance is at $15.53, while initial support is at $15.34 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents higher, with HRW 7 to 9 cents higher. Spring wheat is mostly 2 to 4 cents higher.

• Winter wheat futures are pushing higher as traders continue to ponder global supplies as Russia questions the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal.
• Ukrainian farmers may face a shortage of fertilizers for 2023 spring-sown crops, which could result in sharp yield cuts, according to a top agriculture official.
• Russia’s agricultural ministry said earlier today that 95% of crops were in “good” or “satisfactory” condition ahead of the spring sowing season.
• India’s 2023 wheat production is likely to rise 4.1% to a record 112.2 MMT, as higher prices prompted farmers to expand growing crop areas with high-yielding varieties, along with favorable weather.
• U.S. hard red winter wheat areas in the Central Plains will get some needed snow and rain tonight and Wednesday, ending Thursday, though World Weather states the southwestern U.S. Plains are unlikely to get much precip for a while. 
• March SRW is inching towards $8.00, with initial resistance at $8.09 3/4. Initial support is at $7.92 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are slightly to moderately lower.

• Live cattle are weaker on corrective selling as traders anticipate lengthy cash cattle negotiations.
• Cash cattle are expected to trade steady/firmer this week. But packers are likely to dig in their heels following a $4.37 jump in the past two weeks, which could push cash trade deep into the week.
• Wholesale beef prices rose on Monday, with a 29-cent increase in Choice and $1.92 leap in Select, narrowing the spread to $13.74. Movement was solid at 116 loads.
• April live cattle reached as high as $162.35, with initial resistance standing near $162.47. Initial support is at $161.89.

Hog futures are mixed with summer-month contracts posting moderate gains.

• February lean hog futures are trading mildly lower with the contract expiring today.
• The CME lean hog index is up 63 cents to $74.64 as of Feb. 10, and is the eighth straight daily, with 12 of the last 14 days being firmer. The cash market has posted a seasonal low, with the rally picking up steam with today’s rise being the largest daily gain since Dec. 27.
• April hog futures will take over lead-month status at a sizeable premium to the cash index. April hogs are trading more just over $12 above today’s cash quote.
• The pork cutout value firmed 69 cents on Monday to $81.74, despite a $2.42 drop in bellies. Movement was strong at 271 loads for the day.
• April lean hogs have reached as high as $87.80, with resistance at $88.33. Initial support stands at the 20-day moving average near $85.29.