Market Snapshot | February 13, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are trading cautiously higher as a weaker U.S. dollar is providing a boost to commodities.
• Mato Grasso’s safrinha second corn crop planting rose 17.7% in week ended Feb. 10 to 34.1%, still behind the previous year’s pace of 57.1% and the five-year average of 48.5%. Brazil’s overall safrinha planting pace is at 25%, compared to last year’s pace of 42%
• USDA reported export inspections of 511,506 MT for week ended Feb., which was up 17,506 MT from the previous week and was within the expected range of 360,000 and 800,000 MT.
• March corn has reached as high as $6.85, with initial resistance at $6.85 3/4 and initial resistance at the 100-day moving average of $6.73 3/4.

Soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher in old-crop contracts, while March meal futures are around $7.00 higher, and March soyoil is over 50 points lower.

• Soybeans are modestly higher, taking spillover strength from a continued rally in soymeal futures amid persisting concerns around weather in Argentina.
• Brazilian farmers have harvested 17% of the planted soybeans through last Thursday, according to Agrural, which is up 8% from the previous week. The pace still lags last year’s 24% harvested at the same time.
• World Weather Inc. notes Argentina rainfall overnight was welcome, but it was not nearly enough to change the bottom line and drying will resume.
• Brazil rainfall over the coming week will be above normal from Mato Grasso do Sul and areas southward into northern Parana and western and southern Sao Paulo, keeping soils saturated and further restricting field progress, according to World Weather.  
• China will increase its efforts to boost soybean and edible oils output in an effort to decrease reliance on imports of the oilseed as the pandemic, trade tensions and increasing climate disasters have risen concerns about feeding the country’s population.
• USDA reported export inspections of 1.555 MMT (42 million bu.) for week ended Feb. 9, which was towards the top-end pre-report estimate of 1.92 MMT. Though Inspections were down 359,467 MT from the previous week.
• March soybeans reached as high as $15.55 1/2, with initial resistance at $15.61 1/2 and initial support at the 10-day moving average of $15.29 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents higher, with HRW 3 to 4 cents higher. Spring wheat mostly unchanged to a penny higher.

• Winter wheat futures are extending last week’s gains as traders question global supply amid Russian apprehension in renewing the Black Sea grain deal.
• Russia said today that it would be “inappropriate” to extend the Black Sea grain deal unless sanctions affecting its agricultural exports are lifted and other issues are resolved.
• Ukraine grain exports in the 2022-23 season, which runs through June, are down 28.7% to 29.2 million tonnes, due to smaller harvest and logistical difficulties caused by the Russian invasion, according to agriculture ministry data.
• USDA reported export inspections of 472,327 MT for week ended Feb. 9, which was down 118.232 MT from the previous week, but within the pre-report range between 250,000 and 600,000 MT.
• March SRW is choppy with initial resistance at $7.99 and initial support at $7.64.

Live cattle are higher, while feeders are slightly lower.

• Live cattle are trading modestly higher as traders wait for cash cattle trade become active.
• Cash cattle reportedly traded $1 to $2 higher in the Southern Plains and up to $4 higher in the northern market late last week. Packers remain short-bought, which gives traders hopes of stronger cash prices again this week.
• Wholesale beef prices rose 37 cents in Choice and 28 cents in Select on Friday, taking the Choice/Select spread to $15.37, on movement of 111 loads.
• April live cattle are trading narrowly in the upper range of the previous session, with initial resistance at $162.25, with initial support at $160.825.

Hog futures are mixed with summer-month contracts surging higher.

• February lean hog futures are trading slightly lower as traders are unwilling to increase premiums already built into the contract.
• The CME lean hog index is up an additional 21 cents to $74.01 as of Feb. 9, extending the daily gains to seven, with 11 of the last 13 having been higher.
• February lean hog futures, which expire on Tuesday, ended Friday’s session $1.865 above today’s cash quote, while the April contract held a $9.315 premium.
• Pork cutout value firmed 66 cents on Friday to $81.05, key will be whether packers can find enough retailer demand to keep prices above $80.00.
• April lean hogs have traded as high as $86.275, above the 10-day moving average. Stronger resistance stands at the 20-day moving average near $85.48, while initial support lies near $82.71.