Market Snapshot | February 12, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are choppy, with strength in soybean futures providing price support, while wheat and outside markets limit the upside.
• Brazil’s 2023-24 second corn production forecast was raised nearly 5 MMT to 91.2 by AgRural, citing evidence of farmers planting an area larger than initially estimated. Safrinha planting efforts were estimated to be 38% complete.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 880,074 MT (34.6 million bu.) for the week ended Feb. 8, which rose 234,580 MT from the previous week. Inspections were near the top end of the pre-report range from 425,000 MT to 950,000 MT.
• Egypt tendered to buy at least 50,000 MT of corn from unspecified origins over the weekend.
• March corn carved a fresh contract low in early trade, with support at $4.25 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $4.34 1/2.

Soybean futures are mostly 8 to 11 cents higher, while March soymeal is around $7.00 higher. March soyoil is around 30 points lower.

• Soymeal futures are leading soybeans higher amid corrective buying in the wake of heavy selling Friday.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 23% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, the second fastest pace on record behind 26% in 2018-19. AgRural noted with more than half of the crop harvested in Mato Grosso, attention is on conditions in southern Brazil.
• World Weather Inc. reports rain fell on some of the driest areas in Paraguay and Rio Grande Do Sul, Brazil, during the weekend while other parts of Brazil received rain as well.
• One hundred hectares of soybeans in Argentina’s core zone have been lost due to “irreversible stress symptoms” after extreme heat that lasted two weeks, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange. That is equivalent to 10% of the late-planted soybean areas sown after wheat.
• USDA reported soybean export inspections of 1.33 MMT (48.7 million bu.), which were down 424,378 MT from the previous week but near the top-end of the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.45 MMT.
• March soybeans continue to be limited by the 10-day moving average of $11.98 1/2, while initial support remains at last week’s low of $11.79 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly unchanged to 2 cents higher, while HRW is fractionally to 3 cents lower. HRS is mildly favoring the downside.

• Wheat futures are edging sideways in consolidative trade as overhead resistance and U.S. dollar strength limit a move higher.
• Poland plans to start quality checks on all grain shipments from Ukraine, Deputy Agriculture Minister Mihcael Kolodziejcsak said as Polish farmers continued nationwide protests against EU policies, including allowing grain imports from the neighboring country.
• USDA reported wheat export inspections of 407,476 MT (15.0 million bu.), which were up 111,936 MT from the previous week and toward the upper end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
• March SRW futures have moved above the 20- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around $5.97, while the 100- and 40-day moving averages of $6.02 1/2 and $6.05 1/2 serve as the next areas of resistance. Meanwhile, initial support remains at $5.88.

Live cattle are favoring the downside, while feeders are posting moderate- to strong gains.

• Live cattle futures have given up earlier strength as selling ensued after notching an over three- month high.
• Cash cattle traded sharply higher late Friday, though traders will have to wait until later this morning to get official data, including the volume of cattle sold. Poor packer margins could limit their willingness to bid for cattle this week.
• The Choice boxed beef value dropped 97 cents to $294.04 Friday, while Select rose 96 cents to $285.08, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $8.96.
• April live cattle have filled the gap created Nov. 6. Next resistance is at $189.025, while support remains at $185.875.

Lean hogs are modestly lower at midmorning.

• Hog futures are favoring the downside in consolidative trade amid weakening cash and wholesale fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is down 40 cents to $73.60 as of Feb. 8, marking the first back-to-back decline since late December when the index was carving a seasonal low.
• The pork cutout value fell 39 cents Friday to $85.97 amid a drop in all cuts except primal ribs and butts. Movement totaled 303.7 loads.
• April lean hogs continue to face support at $80.47, while resistance at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $81.27 and $82.40 is limiting buying efforts.