Market Snapshot | February 1, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are giving back a portion of Wednesday’s gains amid weakness in soybeans and meal.
• USDA is expected to report corn-for-ethanol-use production totaled 474.4 million bu. in December, which would be up 19.0 million bu. (4.3%) from November and 48.6 million bu. (11.4%) above last year.
• USDA reported corn sales of 1.21 MMT during the week ended Jan. 25, up 26% from the previous week and 58% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the top end of the pre-report range of estimates from 800,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
• March corn is trading within Wednesday’s range, as support lies at the previous session’s low of $4.43 1/4, while the 20-day moving average of $4.50 serves as resistance.

Soybean futures are mostly 13 to 18 cents lower, while March meal is around $6.00 lower. March soyoil is trading near unchanged.

• Soybeans futures are lower amid weak export sales data and pressure from soymeal futures.
• USDA reported soybean export sales of 164,500 MT during the week ended Jan. 25, a marketing-year low. Net sales were down 71% from the previous week and 64% from the four-week average. Traders were expecting sales to range from 500,000 MT to 1.05 MMT.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 206,834 MT to Mexico during 2023-24.
• Analysts expect USDA to report December soybean crush totaled 206.5 million bu. in December, according to a Bloomberg survey, which would be the most ever for any month and 19.4 million bu. (10.2%) above last year.
• Soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the U.S. held at 1.062 billion lbs. in November, according to the Energy Information Administration, marking the seventh straight month in which soyoil use for biofuels topped 1 billion lbs.
• Argentina’s grain exports hit $1.25 billion in January, up 64% versus a year earlier, industry data showed Thursday, a boost for new libertarian President Javier Milei who sharply devalued the peso after taking in December.
• March soybeans have fallen below support at $12.11 1/2, though losses are being limited by additional support at $12.01. Meanwhile, resistance is at the 20-day moving average of $12.27 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents higher, while HRW wheat is steady to a penny lower and spring wheat is mostly 3 to 4 cents higher at midmorning.

• Wheat futures have rebounded from earlier weakness amid bargain buying.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 322,500 MT during the week ended Jan. 25, down 29% from the previous week and 9% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales to range from 275,000 to 600,000 MT.
• World Weather Inc. notes U.S. crops ratings are mixed with concern over bitter cold damage in the northwestern Plains from early January, while most Midwest and HRW wheat crops are in good shape, though more moisture is needed in the Central and Southern Plains.
• March SRW futures are trading mostly between the 10- and 20-day moving averages, both currently around $5.99 3/4 and support at $5.84.

Live cattle are mildly higher while feeders are sharply higher at midsession.

• Cattle are higher following USDA’s bullish Cattle Inventory data.
• USDA estimated there were 87.157 million head of cattle in the U.S. as of Jan. 1, down 1.684 million head (1.9%) from year ago. The beef cow herd dropped 716,000 head (2.0%) to 28.233 million head. The 2023 calf crop was estimated at 33.593 million head, down 847,000 head (2.5%) from last year. See full report details here.
• Wholesale beef values slid lower Wednesday, with Choice falling $1.53 to $294.54, while Select dropped $2.88 to $284.17. Movement totaled 113 loads.
• USDA reported net beef exports of 16,700 MT for 2024.
• February live cattle futures have reached as high as $178.75, but are being limited by resistance at $178.80, while initial support lies at $177.55.  

Lean hogs are posting losses at midmorning, with deferred contracts under sharp pressure.

• Hog futures are facing corrective selling following a string of recent gains.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 90 cents to $72.38 as of Jan. 30. The cash index firmed $7.33 in January, with $2.48 of total gains occurring in the last three days.
• The pork cutout value fell 99 cents to $87.56 Wednesday amid a drop in all cuts except primal bellies. Movement totaled 310.9 loads.
• USDA reported net pork exports of 42,900 MT for 2024.
• April lean hogs have extended below initial support at $84.16, with additional support at $83.49, while initial resistance remains at $85.41.