Market Snapshot | Costly inputs and weather burden global wheat production

Corn is mostly unchanged at midmorning.

• Corn futures are chopping around unchanged as technical resistance at the 40-day moving average and selling in soybeans limits an extended upside move.
• USDA reported weekly corn sales totaled 1.32 MMT during the week ended April 16, down 6% from the previous week but up 3% from the four-week average. Net sales were New crop sales of 440,100 MT were reported to Mexico. Old- and new-crop sales were within pre-report expectations.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its world corn production forecast to 1.3 billion tons, down from its previous estimate of 1.303 billion.
• China’s agriculture ministry said it will secure sufficient fertilizer supplies and stabilize prices, as the Iran war disrupts global markets for key crop nutrients, according to a Bloomberg report. The country has ample fertilizer for spring planting, the country’s main crop-sowing season, officials said at a briefing in Beijing today.
• South African farmers are expected to harvest 1% more corn in the 2025-26 season compared to the previous one, according to the government’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) earlier today.
• July corn futures are trading mostly between the 40- and 20-day moving averages of $4.64 ¼ and $4.61 1/2, with greater resistance/support at $4.70 1/2 and the 10-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $4.57 3/4 to $4.53 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower. Soymeal is $1.50 higher, while soyoil is around 65 points lower.

• Soybeans are posting followthrough losses amid pressure from soyoil.
• USDA reported weekly soybean sales totaled 364,600 MT for 2025-26 during the week ended April 16. Net sales were up 47% from the previous week, but down 7% from the four-week average. New crop sales of 5,000 MT were reported for Malaysia. Old- and new-crop sales were within pre-report expectations.
• The Argentine trucker protest over higher freight rates have caused delays and paralyzed access to the Quequen port, though farmers have agreed to make an effort to settle the dispute, according to Reuters.
• July soybeans continue to be limited by the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $11.81 to $11.87, while initial support lies at $11.71 1/4 and $11.63.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 4 cents higher, while HRW futures are 9 cents higher. HRS are 3 to 4 cents higher.

• SRW wheat futures are modestly firmer in sideways trade as strong technical support is limiting seller interest.
• USDA reported weekly wheat sales totaled 129,000 MT for 2025-26 during the week ended April 16, up 29% from the previous week but down 25% from the four-week average. New crop sales totaling 8,000 MT were reported for South Korea and Honduras. Old-crop sales were within pre-report expectations, while new-crop sales were well below.
• IGC lowered its 2026-27 world wheat production forecast to 821 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 822 MMT.
• India’s wheat output is likely to fall 5-10% from 2025 levels, according to trade officials, after rain and hail ahead of harvest cut yields.
• South African farmers will likely plant the smallest area of wheat in more than a decade this year as the war in Iran pushes up the cost of key inputs, according to Bloomberg.
• Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to purchase 710,000 MT of HRW milling wheat, according to the General Food Security Authority earlier today. Delivery is scheduled between June and August.
• July SRW futures are trading inside Wednesday’s range, with solid support at the 20-, 40- and 10-day moving averages, layered from $6.05 to $$6.02. Meanwhile resistance stands at $6.16, then at $6.36 and $6.49 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are weaker at midsession.

• Nearby cattle futures are under pressure for the seventh straight session amid continued technical selling.
• The agency’s annual cattle slaughter summary report was released Wednesday afternoon, providing finalized data for meat production in 2025. In addition to the regular monthly reports, the annual provides insight on where meat production is concentrated as well as the number of plants operating as of January 1, 2026.
• Boxed beef prices flipped on Wednesday, with Choice down $1.99 to $384.19 and Select down $3.87 to $383.33. Movement totaled 117 loads.
• USDA reported weekly beef sales totaled 15,100 MT for 2026 during the week ended April 16. Net sales were up 26% from the previous week and 17% from the four-week average.
• June cattle futures are trading between resistance at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, layered at $245.19 and $247.01 and support at the 40-day moving average of $238.51.

Hog futures are firmer at midmorning.

• June lean hogs are modestly firmer amid support from firming cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is up 54 cents to $91.05 as of April 21, deepening recent gains.
• USDA reported weekly pork sales totaled 16,100 MT for 2026 during the week ended April 16. That was a marketing year low. Net sales were down 57% from the previous week and 60% from the four-week average.
• Pork cutout slid 79 cents on Wednesday to $98.55 amid declines in all cuts aside from primal ribs and butts. Movement totaled 300.3 loads.
• June lean hogs continue to find support at the 10- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $102.44 to $102.21. Meanwhile, resistance stands at the 20-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, trading between $103.95 to $105.97.