10:30 Market Snapshot | December 19, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are lower on spillover pressure from the soy complex, despite strength in wheat and supportive outside markets.
• South American consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian corn crop forecast by 1 MMT to 117 MMT and he has a lower bias. He raised his Argentine corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 53 MMT.
• Beijing has dropped regional restrictions on corn imports and other commodities from Russia. An addendum to a phytosanitary agreement was signed during a visit to China by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
• March corn futures have dropped below Monday’s low to the lowest level since the contract low on Nov. 29. Futures appear headed for a test of that support at $4.70 1/2. Resistance is heavily layered in the $4.75 to $4.93 3/4 area.

Soybeans are 13 to 17 cents lower, while meal futures are $6.00 to $7.00 lower. Soyoil futures are 10 to 20 points lower.

• Soybean futures are facing double-digit losses at midmorning amid pressure from forecasts calling for rains in central and northern production areas of Brazil.
• Dry areas of Brazil are forecast to receive rains from today through the weekend. However, World Weather Inc. notes the country’s weather pattern still won’t be “normal” during the next two weeks. More rains will be needed after the prolonged drought.
• Southern Brazil and Argentina are expected to experience mostly favorable conditions for crop development the next two weeks.
• Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 2 MMT to 155 MMT, while maintaining a neutral/lower bias. His Argentine soybean crop peg remained at 50 MMT.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 132,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24. That’s eight of the past nine days with daily soybean sales.
• January soybeans continue to pivot around the 10-day moving average, which is currently at $13.15 after being turned back at the 20- and 5-day moving averages overnight.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher, HRW contracts are 6 to 8 cents higher, while HRS futures are 3 to 7 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are higher amid modest corrective buying, with support coming from outside markets, though weakness in corn and the soy complex is limiting gains.
• The Central and Southern Plains, along with the Midwest are in line for rains later this week. This will help improve soil moisture conditions for the winter wheat crop.
• Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he will speak with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin soon to urge Moscow to revive the Black Sea grain initiative. Russia on Sunday reiterated it has no desire to restart the deal.
• March SRW futures fell to an intra-day low of $6.11 1/4 before rebounding. Today’s low is initial support. The 10-day moving average at $6.22 3/4 is resistance.

Live cattle are slightly higher at midsession, with feeders posting moderate to strong gains.

• Cattle futures have rebounded from earlier weakness and are extending recent corrective gains.
• Cash cattle prices fell $1.23 last week to $168.71, the sixth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest average cash price since the week ended March 24. Even with holiday-shortened slaughter schedules in the weeks ahead, cash sources expect steady/firmer prices this week.
• Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Monday, as Choice cutout dropped $2.71 to $288.93, while Select rose $2.90 to $263.72. Movement was lighter than the recent average at 102 loads.
• February live cattle remain in the modest uptrend from the Dec. 7 low. Monday’s high at $171.00 stands as initial resistance. Uptrending support intersects near $168.145.

Lean hogs are slightly to moderately lower at midmorning.

• Lean hogs are facing followthrough selling after Monday’s weak close.
• Traders are narrowing the premium February futures hold to the cash index as cash prices continue to decline seasonally. The CME lean hog index is down another 56 cents to $66.59 as of Dec. 15.
• Wholesale pork prices dropped 36 cents to $83.97 on Monday.
• February lean hogs gapped lower and then filled the gap, though buyer interest dried up near Monday’s closing level at $71.575. Initial resistance extends from that level to Monday’s high at $72.45. Today’s low at $70.60 is initial support.