10:30 a.m. Market Snapshot | Oct. 11, 2021

Corn futures are slightly firmer and trading in narrow ranges at midsession.

• Grain and soy complex futures are trading with limited direction and volume ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports tomorrow.
• USDA is expected to trim its estimate of the U.S. corn harvest by about 0.2%, to 14.973 billion bu., based on a Reuters survey of analysts. The average U.S. yield is expected to be cut 0.2% to 176 bu. per acre.
• Harvest “likely advanced well” over much of the Midwest over the weekend, World Weather Inc. said in a report today. “Temperatures and drying rates were much higher than normal.”
• The weekly USDA crop progress report will be delayed until tomorrow due to the Columbus Day holiday. In last week’s report, USDA said 29% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Oct. 3, above the average for the previous five years of 22%.
• Speculators known as managed funds increased their net long position in corn futures and options for the third consecutive week, to 250,596 contracts as of Oct. 5, the highest since Aug. 31, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
• December futures rose as high as $5.34 a bushel, after falling 2.0% last week to $5.30 1/2, the lowest closing price since $5.26 3/4 on Sept. 24.

Soy complex futures are mostly lower, with soybeans down 6 to 7 cents after erasing overnight gains.

• USDA is expected to increase its estimate of the U.S. soybean harvest by 0.9%, to 4.415 billion bu., while the average yield is expected to rise 1.0%, to 51.1 bu. per acre, based on the Reuters survey.
• The U.S. soybean harvest was ahead of schedule last week, but rainfall expected this week in much of the Midwest may keep many farmers out of their fields. As of Oct. 3, the crop was 34% harvested, compared to the five-year average of 26%.
• Cargill shifted some soybean exports to Texas as hurricane-related repairs to Louisiana facilities continue. Several other shipments of beans are expected to depart from the Houston facility.
• November soybeans overnight rose as high as $12.51 1/4 before slipping as low as $12.34 1/4. Chart levels to watch include last week’s low at $12.31, a six-month low, and the 20-day moving average around $12.67 1/2.

Wheat futures are mostly lower after fading from initial gains.

• HRW and SRW futures fell to the lowest levels in over a week and spring wheat also declined in the wake of much-needed rain the Northern U.S. Plains.
• Drought-easing rain fell from eastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota into central and northwestern Minnesota during the weekend, with most of the region seeing enough rain to ensure winter crops have enough moisture to become well-established, World Weather said today. More precip is expected midweek.
• USDA is expected to lower its U.S. ending-stocks forecast as it incorporates Sept. 1 stocks and final 2021 crop estimates into the 2021-22 balance sheets.
• U.S. wheat supplies at the end of the 2021-22 marketing year are expected to drop to 576 million bu., based on the Reuters survey, down from USDA’s current estimate of 615 million bu. Traders also expect USDA to cut its world wheat ending stocks forecast.
• Russia exported 4.3 MMT of wheat in September and will ship 3.3 MMT of the grain this month, down 14% and 29%, respectively, compared to the same months a year earlier, the ag consultancy SovEcon estimated. Exports for the current marketing year are down nearly 24%, reflecting higher tariffs.
• December SRW wheat posted a modest rebound after earlier falling as low as $7.31, the lowest intraday price since $7.22 3/4 on Oct. 1. The most-active contract dropped 2.8% last week.

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are mixed to firmer in light trading.

• Live cattle futures are seeing limited followthrough from last week’s 4.0% rally to five-week highs, as slumping boxed beef prices continue to burden the market.
• Weak boxed beef suggests soft retail demand and the market likely needs to stabilize before futures generate sustained buying interest. Choice boxed beef fell $2.03 Friday to an average of $283.27, down 3.1% on the week and the lowest since $281.00 Aug. 2.
• Live steers ended last week around $122.96, up from the previous week’s average of $122.56.
• Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 657,000 head of cattle last week, up 3.1% from both the previous week and the same week in 2020, USDA reported.
• Chart levels to watch in December live cattle include last week’s high at $130.60, which roughly coincides with the 40-day moving average, along with the 100-day moving average around $131.00.

Lean hog futures are moderately lower, with December lean hogs sinking to the lowest price in over two weeks.

• Pressure stemmed from eroding cash fundamentals and followthrough from last week’s 4.3% drop, though shrinking supplies may limit futures downside.
• Pork cutout values Friday fell $5.27 to an average of $106.99, down 5.6% on the week and the lowest price since $104.29 on Sept. 23.
• Carcasses on national direct markets fell 92 cents Friday to $69.26, down 5.0% on the week. The latest CME lean hog index fell 64 cents to $91.95.
• Last week’s slaughter at an estimated 2.597 million head may have marked a temporary peak, based on historical patterns. Slaughter last week was up 3.2% from the week before but down 4.8% from the same week in 2020.
• China's sow herd declined for the first time in nearly two years, contracting 0.5% in July from the previous month, state media said, after a plunge in hog prices pushed many farmers to get rid of unproductive sows, Reuters reported.
• December lean hogs fell as low as $79.425 per hundredweight, the lowest intraday price since $75.65 on Sept. 24. The December daily chart still has an unfilled gap between the Sept. 24 high of $77.20 and the Sept. 27 low at $79.75.