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Soybeans post bullish reaction to USDA’s report data... Soybean futures posted strong gains after USDA lowered old-crop ending stocks more than anticipated and projected a 55-million-bu. decline in carryover for 2025-26. At 295 million bu., new-crop stocks don’t leave a lot of margin for error with this year’s production, especially given dryness in the western Corn Belt to start the growing season. July corn ended lower, despite a bigger-than-expected cut to old-crop ending stocks, while December futures were mildly supported by new-crop carryover coming in more than 200 million bu. below expectations though the projected 385-million-bu. year-over-year increase limited buying. Wheat futures were pressured by the bigger-than-expected winter wheat crop estimate and projected new-crop stocks. Click here to view full report details.
Winter wheat conditions continue to improve... USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 54% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, up three points from the previous week. Analysts expected 51%. The “poor” to “very poor” rating declined seven points to 11%.
USDA reported the crop was 53% headed, eight points ahead of average. That included 89% in Texas (83% average), 78% in Oklahoma (81%) and 71% in Kansas (47%).
Corn planting advances more than expected... USDA reported corn planting advanced 22 points to 62%, two points above analysts’ expectations and six points ahead of the five-year average. Across the top 12 production states, planting stood at 54% in Illinois (60% average), 45% in Indiana (42%), 76% in Iowa (69%), 61% in Kansas (57%), 42% in Michigan (31%), 75% in Minnesota (61%), 68% in Missouri (71%), 73% in Nebraska (65%), 41% in North Dakota (16%), 25% in Ohio (27%), 69% in South Dakota (43%) and 44% in Wisconsin (40%).
Corn emergence stood at 28%, seven points ahead of average for the date.
Soybean planting nearly half complete... Soybean planting jumped 18 points to 48%, one point more advanced than expected and 11 points ahead of average. Across the top 13 production states, planting stood at 69% in Arkansas (55% average), 51% in Illinois (48%), 41% in Indiana (34%), 64% in Iowa (52%), 35% in Kansas (29%), 29% in Michigan (30%), 52% in Minnesota (37%), 40% in Missouri (29%), 62% in Nebraska (46%), 26% in North Dakota (8%), 25% in Ohio (22%), 51% in South Dakota (23%) and 40% in Wisconsin (30%).
Soybean emergence stood at 17%, six points ahead of average.
Spring wheat crop two-thirds planted... Spring wheat planting jumped 22 points to 66%, 17 points ahead of the five-year average. Planting in top producer North Dakota stood at 58%, 23 points ahead of average.
Spring wheat emergence increased to 27%, eight points ahead of normal.
Cotton planting slips behind normal... Cotton planting increased seven points to 28%, three points behind average. Planting stood at 27% in Texas (29% average) and 24% in Georgia (28%).
U.S./China trade talks to address new port fees on Chinese ships... Senior executives from state-owned Cosco Shipping are planning on traveling to Washington this week to meet with U.S. officials. Beijing is expected to challenge a new U.S. policy imposing port fees on Chinese-made and operated vessels. The fees, introduced last month by the U.S. Trade Representative and reinforced by an April executive order from President Donald Trump, are part of a broader strategy to revive the domestic shipping industry. The move heavily impacts Chinese state-owned shipping giant Cosco, which is the world’s largest shipowner by fleet size and a major user of U.S. ports.
House Ag Committee to launch high-stakes budget reconciliation markup... The House Ag Committee will begin its markup of the budget reconciliation package on Tuesday evening. The committee is under pressure to identify $230 billion in cuts over the next decade, with major changes proposed to nutrition assistance, farm safety nets, and agricultural trade programs.
Key policy fights:
- SNAP overhaul: Proposed changes would limit future benefit increases, add stricter work requirements, and shift up to 25% of program costs to states — a sharp departure from current federal funding levels. Democrats and anti-hunger advocates warn of harm to vulnerable populations.
- Farm programs: The markup includes up to $70 billion in higher reference prices (and possibly a boost in farmer payment caps) and expanded crop insurance — mostly mirroring Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson’s (R-Pa.) previous farm bill draft — but offsets may require deep cuts elsewhere, complicating consensus.
- Trade promotion: Lawmakers are pushing for more funding to counter a nearly $50 billion ag trade deficit. However, structural trade issues persist.
More than 160 farm and nutrition groups have criticized the reconciliation strategy, warning that bypassing a full farm bill process could erode long-term policy stability and bipartisan cooperation.
Amendment votes will dominate Wednesday’s session, with intense GOP/Democratic negotiations expected. The outcome could redefine the federal role in both agriculture and food security for the next decade.
Clean energy tax credits face uncertain future in GOP tax bill... House Republicans are advancing a sweeping tax and spending bill that could significantly scale back or reshape some of the clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These credits — worth hundreds of billions of dollars — have become a major flashpoint in ongoing GOP budget negotiations.
Key proposals under consideration
- Immediate repeal: EV tax credits could be repealed as early as Dec. 31, reflecting strong GOP opposition.
- Phased rollbacks: Credits for solar, wind and other renewables may face gradual phase-outs, though timelines remain undecided.
- Transferability & foreign ties: Proposed changes would eliminate the ability to sell credits to third parties and ban eligibility for projects linked to China, Russia and other foreign adversaries.
The GOP remains split. While hardliners are pushing for full repeal, over 20 Republican lawmakers support retaining select credits to protect jobs and investments in renewable-heavy districts.
Developers and investors face growing uncertainty, though credits for existing projects are unlikely to be revoked retroactively.