Evening Report | Aug. 13, 2021

Click here for weekly export sales charts and here for report details.

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

Wheat producers: Increase 2021- and 2022-crop sales… Wheat futures surged to new contract highs following USDA’s bullish report data on Thursday. The outlook is bullish and the technical breakout opens additional upside potential, but it also creates a selling opportunity. We advise wheat hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of 2021-crop to get to 70% priced. Spring wheat producers should adjust sales according to your production prospects. We also advise all wheat producers to sell another 10% of expected 2022-crop production for harvest delivery next year to get to 20% forward-priced.

Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available… USDA delivered a number of bullish surprises in its August Crop Production Report and WASDE. You’ll find plenty of report coverage in this week’s letter. We’re also ready to head out on Crop Tour. Find out how to follow along and get the most out of the tour data. Access this week’s letter here.

Crop Tour provides a firsthand, objective look at the 2021 corn, soybean crops… This marks the 29th year of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Because USDA no longer collects objective yield samples in August, this will be the industry’s first broad look at field data from across the Corn Belt. The objective of Crop Tour is to find a representative sample of yield potential across the seven Corn Belt states from the roughly 1,500 samples each of corn and soybeans.

How to receive up-to-date information from Tour… There will be exclusive daily route reports from Tour leaders on www.profarmer.com. Also, don’t forget to log on for the live-streamed Crop Tour meetings each evening where you will get daily Tour results and route observations from Tour participants.

Tour leaders and consultants will provide daily commentary in “From the Rows” on www.profarmer.com. Also, tune into AgriTalk each day at 10:06 a.m. and 2:06 p.m. CT on www.agweb.com/agritalk or the AgriTalk app, or your favorite farm radio station to hear a Crop Tour update.

Search #PFTour21 on Twitter to get Tour-related tweets and follow @BGrete, @ChipFlory, @BruceBlythe, @MNWeedWizard, @emily_floryag14 and @brent8320r for tweets from the field each day. Follow @MeghanVick and @profarmer for daily Tour results.

Using the data… The best analysis of this year’s corn data will be to compare state-by-state results to last year’s Tour, with close attention to the percentage changes. Also, apply the historical difference for each state! We know the yield calculated during Crop Tour will be different than USDA’s final yield for each state. Fortunately, we know by how much on average.

The historical difference is the result of where the Tour travels. Examples: In Nebraska, about 60% of the corn crop is irrigated, but Crop Tour samples include about 40% irrigated fields. In Minnesota, we cover only the highest yielding southern districts. There are reasons for the differences and understanding them makes Tour yields valuable.

The number of soybean pods it takes to make a bushel is different in each state. Instead of yield, we calculate the number of pods in a 3X3-foot square. Compare pod counts to past Tour data to get an idea about the size of this year’s yield “factory.” Find charts comparing Tour findings to USDA’s results here.

Scout your fields, too… While we’re scouting fields across the Corn Belt Aug. 16-19 on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, you can scout your own fields. That will allow you to compare your results to those we find in other areas of the Corn Belt. Follow the steps below.

In each corn field, get past the end rows and then take 35 paces into the field, then:

• At the 35th pace, lay out a 30-foot plot and count all the ears that will make grain on two 30-foot rows.
• From one of those two rows, pull the 5th, 8th and 11th ears. This gives us a consistently random process to select sample ears.
• Measure the length of grain (in inches, rounded to the nearest one-quarter inch) on each ear.
• Count the number of kernel rows around each ear.
• Record the row width in the field.
• To calculate the estimated yield, take the average number of ears in the two 30-foot rows TIMES the average length of grain per ear TIMES the average number of kernel rows around; DIVIDE the total by row width.
  • Example: (50 ears X 6.5 inches X 16.7 kernel rows) / 30-inch rows = 180.9. This example gives you an estimated yield at that spot in the field of 180.9 bu. per acre.

In each soybean field, pick a ‘representative spot’ in the field, then:

• Measure three-foot of row and count all the plants in that plot. Randomly select three plants. Count all the pods on those three plants and calculate the average number of pods per plant.
• Multiply the average number of pods per plant by the number of plants in the three-foot plot. Multiply that number by 36, and divide by row width.
  • Example: (14 plants X 32 pods/plant X 36) / 15-inch rows = 1,075.2 pods in a 3’X3’ square. Compare your results to what we find on Tour.

BRF SA working to reverse ban on pork exports to China from one of its facilities… Brazil’s BRF SA reports China has suspended pork imports from its plant in Lucas do Rio Verde due to an issue with frozen cargo from that facility. The processor’s CEO says BRF is working with Chinese and Brazilian authorities to reverse the ban since the issue has nothing to do with the facility itself.

Europe delays new requirements for U.S. exports of dairy ingredients… The International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) is welcoming a decision by the European Commission to extend the implementation deadline for new health certificate requirements for dairy ingredients used in infant formulas and adult nutrition products, saying the EU is “backing off threats” to shut down U.S. dairy exports to European Union member states. U.S. dairy interests have criticized the EU certification requirements which include animal health monitoring and veterinarian signoffs that the U.S. industry contends are onerous and in conflict with international standards set by the World Health Organization. The provisions were to start Aug. 21 but will now be effective Jan. 15, 2022. The extension, the IDFA said, will allow U.S. and European officials to determine appropriate implementation procedures for U.S. exports.

Perspective: Annual U.S. dairy product sales to the that would have been affected by the new rules were pegged at $600 million to $900 million by IDFA.

Kansas City Southern’s board rejected a new takeover bid from Canadian Pacific, keeping a buyout offer from Canadian National on track… Meanwhile, Canadian Pacific and Canadian National railways told regulators they are adjusting operations to limit congestion at their U.S. intermodal terminals.

Market Watch… Cash wheat prices have firmed, though HRS values have eased from their elevated levels. Find more monthly and quarterly price outlooks along with weekly prices for a variety of ag markets in our Market Watch table.