Corn
Price action: July corn futures closed steady at $4.59 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw limited buying interest today as weather in most of the Corn Belt still leans price-bearish. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today were also a negative for corn futures, as were lower crude oil prices. Solid losses in the winter wheat futures markets today also kept the corn bulls timid.
World Weather Inc. today said there are concerns over too much rain in the Delta, “although the area is small relative to total production for the nation. Needless to say, concern over acreage reductions for corn and concern for soybeans may rise. Other areas in the U.S. are seeing a mostly good mix of weather especially as warming returns this week.” Meantime, center-west and southern portions of center-south Brazil corn production areas will get rain this week to help raise production potentials for a few of the drier late-planted crops. Harvesting in Argentina may be delayed briefly early this week and then conditions will improve thereafter into next week, said World Weather. Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn crop estimates unchanged at 129 MMT and 50 MMT, respectively.
USDA this morning reported U.S. corn export inspections of 1.4 MMT during the week ended May 22, down 364,527 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations.
This afternoon’s weekly crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. corn planting at 87% complete as of Sunday, compared to 78% complete last week and 83% in the ground at the same time last year. In its first rating of the year, USDA is seen putting the corn crop condition at 73% good to excellent as of Sunday. That’s above the historical average.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.70. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the May low of $4.36 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.64 3/4 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 2 1/4 cents to $10.62 1/2, while July meal rose 10 cents to $296.30, each ending well off the session highs. July soyoil rose 22 points to $49.57 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans eased from overnight strength as the session progressed as selling across the grain complex crimped buyer interest. Meanwhile, President Trump’s postponement of tariffs against the European Union heightened the risk appetite in the general marketplace, which sent equities and the U.S. dollar rocketing higher and ultimately cast a shadow over commodities.
Soybeans were supported in overnight trade amid lowered Argentine production expectations, amid recent flooding. Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his soybean crop expectations by 1.5 MMT to 48.5 MMT amid significant crop losses in northern Buenos Aires. He noted a lower bias toward the crop going forward but maintained his Brazilian estimate of 169 MMT.
Earlier this morning, USDA reported weekly export inspection data, which showed net soybean inspections of 194,904 MT during the week ended May 22. Inspections declined 30,454 MT from the previous week and were just within the pre-report range of 175,000 to 550,000 MT.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report following this afternoon’s close. Analysts expect soybean plantings have advanced 77% on average, according to a Bloomberg poll.
Technical analysis: July soybeans edged sideways in consolidative trade, pressured by the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, which are each trading around $10.64, while the 100-day moving average of $10.59 curbed downside momentum. Bulls continue to own the near-term technical advantage and look to secure a close above resistance at $10.82, while bears have their sights set on breaching support at $10.20. Initial resistance will remain at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, then at last week’s high of $10.73 1/4, while fist support lies at the 100-day moving average, then at $10.55 and again at last week’s low of $10.45 3/4.
July meal futures closed right at the 40-day moving average, trading at $296,00, while support stood at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $295.50. Bulls will continue to face resistance at $296.60, then at $298.20, while additional support below the 10- and 20-day moving averages, will serve at the 200- and 100-day moving averages, trading at $294.70 and $294.40.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures slid 14 cents to $5.28 1/2 and closed near session lows. July HRW futures plunged 14 1/4 cents to $5.24 1/4. July spring wheat futures fell 10 1/4 cents to $5.96 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures saw heavy selling today despite an improved attitude across the general marketplace. Winter wheat harvests are expected to have begun in Texas, according to the U.S. Wheat Associates, with tests being conducted in Oklahoma and Arkansas to determine if harvests can begin next week. The onset of harvest is likely to bring some seasonal selling pressure, but today’s big downturn is more likely reflecting rainfall in China. Rainfall through next Tuesday is expected to ease drought conditions in key wheat-growing provinces like Henan and Shaanxi, according to China’s National Meteorological Center. However, World Weather says weather models have mostly removed rain chances for the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin.
USDA reported wheat export inspections of 561,980 MT (20.6 million bu.) during the week ended May 22, up 130,646 MT, topping pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 500,000 MT. That impressive tally points to a potential beat of the current USDA export forecast, which would ring true if inspections remain strong over the next few days as the marketing year wraps up.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress Report this afternoon. A poll of analysts done by Bloomberg shows expectations the winter wheat crop will be rated at 52% “good” to “excellent,” steady with a week ago. The spring wheat crop is expected to be reported at 91% complete and the initial spring wheat ratings are expected to rate the crop at 70% “good” to “excellent.”
Technical analysis: July SRW futures saw sharp selling pressure today, but bulls maintain a slight technical advantage. Bulls are seeking to hold psychological support at the $5.25 mark on continued selling pressure, which is reinforced by support at $5.15 1/4. Bulls are seeking to reclaim resistance at $5.35 3/4 on a bounce, which is backed by the 40-day moving average at $5.42 3/4.
July HRW futures saw heavy selling today but maintained a modest uptrend from the May 13 low. Continued selling pressure finds support at $5.20, which is reinforced by support at $5.16 1/2. Bulls are seeking to reclaim resistance at $5.30 3/4 before tackling stiff resistance at $5.45 3/4/.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Be prepared to make additional 2025-crop and initial 2026-crop sales when the rally shows signs of stalling.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 54 points to 65.57 cents, just shy of the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures weakened modestly to start the shortened trading week but held a range within recent consolidation as technical pressure continues to crimp buyer interest. A stronger U.S. dollar amid risk-on sentiments after President Trump over the weekend delayed his proposal last Friday of tariffs against the European Union.
Meanwhile, improving weather in West Texas will improve planting and germination prospects, amid expected shower activity this week, though World Weather Inc. reports it may be a bit sporadic and light. However, much of the region will receive adequate moisture to improve dryland planting, but frequent follow up rain will be needed due to very low subsoil moisture. In the Delta, field conditions continue to prove too wet, which will maintain some concern over crop conditions with some planting to remain incomplete despite drier weather late this week into next week. The southeastern corner of the U.S. will get some periodic rainfall during the next ten days to two weeks, bolstering soil moisture in areas that have been quite dry this spring, notes the forecaster.
Following today’s close, USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report, which will reflect planting efforts through Sunday. Last week, USDA reported cotton plantings were 40% complete, two points behind last year and three points behind the five-year average.
Technical analysis: July cotton continues to trade sideways as technical resistance at the 20-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, trading at 66.37 cents, 66.79 cents and 67.82 cents limits buyer interest. However, initial support at 65.44 cents has proven formidable support over the past several sessions. Nonetheless, bears will continue to look toward breaching the early April low of 62.05 cents, while bulls will look toward edging above the April 25 high of 69.75 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.