Market Snapshot | April 23, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are higher for the third straight session amid corrective buying.  
• USDA reported corn was 12% planted as of April 14, ahead of the five-year average of 10%. Emergence was estimated at 3%, compared to the average of 2%.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn production estimates for both Brazil and Argentina unchanged at 112 MMT and 50 MMT, respectively. Cordonnier noted a neutral to slightly higher bias toward the Brazilian crop but indicated a lower bias toward the Argentine crop as damage from corn stunt disease continues to spread across northern and central areas of the country.
• U.S. weather in the coming 10 days to two weeks will become a little too wet in the Midwest, eastern Plains and parts of the Delta, causing planting delays.
• May corn is facing resistance at $4.43 1/2, while initial support lies at $4.37 1/4 and is backed by support at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, each trading around $4.33.

Soybean futures are mostly 1 to 4 higher, while soymeal is near unchanged. May soyoil is modestly higher.

• Soybeans are favoring the upside, though gains are limited by technical resistance.
• USDA estimated the soybean crop was 8% planted, compared to the five-year average of 4%.
• Cordonnier maintained his production estimates for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops at 147 MMT and 51 MMT, respectively. He noted a neutral/slightly higher bias toward Brazil’s crop and a neutral bias for Argentina.
• Flooding rain is expected in southern Brazil and immediate neighboring areas during the coming 10 days, which could lead to soybean quality declines, according to World Weather. Production could be at risk if there’s an extended rainy period.
• May soybeans are trading between the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $11.70 1/4 and $11.73 1/2 and the 10-day moving average of $11.55 3/4. Additional resistance/support is at $11.80 and $11.48.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher, while HRW and HRS futures are a nickel to 7 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are being led higher by HRW wheat and notable weakness in the U.S. dollar.
• USDA rated 50% of the winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down five percentage points from the previous week. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased three points to 16%. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop dropped 11.4 points to 325.6, led by a 7-point decline in top producer Kansas. Click here for details.
• The spring wheat crop was 15% planted as of April 14, according to USDA, which was ahead of the five-year average of 10%. Emergence was slightly behind at 2% versus the five-year average of 3%.
• Ukraine grain exports might total 6 MMT to 7 MMT in April despite Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Black Sea, industry sources told Reuters. Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian seaports, damaging grain storage facilities in the Port of Pivdennyi in Odesa region.
• An Egyptian wheat ship has been allowed to sail after waiting three weeks for the correct paperwork, as a dispute between one of Russia’s top grain traders and a local regulator continue to disrupt exports. The dispute between TD Rif and the Russian government has raised concerns of disruptions in grain exports from Russia, which could affect major importers like North Africa and the Middle East, including Egypt.
• May SRW wheat has tested resistance at $5.83 1/2, which is backed by the 100-day moving average of $5.88 1/4. Initial support is at $5.66 1/4.

Live cattle are posting slight gains, while feeders are sharply higher at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are extending recent gains, though technical resistance is limiting buyer interest.
• Cash cattle prices averaged $182.67 last week, down $1.17 from the previous week and the lowest price since mid-February.
• Choice boxed beef prices firmed 26 cents to $295.93 Monday, while Select rose $1.04 to $291.87. Movement totaled 104 loads for the day.
• April live cattle are facing resistance at the 40-day moving average of $184.45, which is backed by the 200-day moving average of $185.04. Initial support lies at $183.24.

Lean hog futures are moderately to sharply higher at midsession.

• Hog futures are firmer with support stemming from solid wholesale fundamentals and an improved technical posture.
• The pork cutout value rose $1.61 to $101.70, led by primal bellies and ribs. Movement totaled 234.4 loads.
• The CME lean hog index is down 4 cents to $91.31 as of April 19, the second straight daily decline, though sustained weakness is not expected.
• June lean hogs are trading at the highest level since the key bearish reversal on April 10. Support lies at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $104.35 and $104.12.